Reggiana 1-1 Avellino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggiana at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Avellino.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore plays host to Reggiana versus Avellino in Serie B (matchday 26). Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Reggiana (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Reggiana's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Reggiana are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Avellino's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Avellino have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Reggiana, 0.80 for Avellino — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Reggiana, 1 for Avellino and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 7.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Reggiana 3–4 Avellino — a Avellino win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 7.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Reggiana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Avellino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 25 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Reggiana 64% and Avellino 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 52% | Avellino 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.31 xG and Avellino 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.873 / defence 1.061 | Avellino attack 0.754 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.108. Avellino's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Reggiana's last 63 games and Avellino's last 25.
Result probabilities: Reggiana 46% | Draw 29% | Avellino 25%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 2.16 | Draw 3.46 | Avellino 4.02. Reggiana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggiana as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggiana if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Reggiana 60% (last 10 home games) | Avellino 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Avellino | Competition: Serie B, matchday 26 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 22 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 46% | Draw 29% | Avellino 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Reggiana 1.31 / Avellino 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.873 / def 1.061 | Avellino attack 0.754 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Avellino xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Reggiana vs Avellino FAQs
What time does Reggiana vs Avellino kick off?
Reggiana vs Avellino kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 22 February 2026 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Avellino?
Reggiana 1 - 1 Avellino.
Where is Reggiana vs Avellino being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Avellino part of?
Reggiana vs Avellino is a Serie B fixture (matchday 26) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Avellino?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 46% chance of winning, Avellino a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Avellino?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Reggiana and Avellino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Reggiana vs Avellino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggiana's attack rating (0.87) and Avellino's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Avellino's attack (0.75x) against Reggiana's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from Reggiana's last 63 games and Avellino's last 25 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.46
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.20
0.89
Avellino xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Reggiana vs Avellino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Avellino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Avellino expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Reggiana and 0.89 for Avellino, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Avellino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggiana come into this having played 25 games, going 6W 7D 12L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Avellino sit at 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Reggiana against 1.12 for Avellino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Reggiana's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across their last 12 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Avellino have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 12 away games (2W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Reggiana are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Avellino are on 1.16 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Blended
Avellino
Blended
Reggiana (Home) vs Avellino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Reggiana
Blended
Avellino
Blended
❓ Reggiana vs Avellino Form FAQs
What form are Reggiana and Avellino in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 6W 7D 12L in their last 25 games (1.00 PPG), while Avellino have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Avellino away?
Reggiana's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 1.33 PPG; Avellino away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Reggiana and Avellino, the earliest from November 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggiana
1
Draws
1
Avellino
Recent Meetings
❓ Reggiana vs Avellino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Avellino?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Reggiana have won 0, Avellino have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Avellino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Reggiana 1-1 Avellino.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Avellino?
Avellino have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 67%, Avellino 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Reggiana) and 33% (Avellino).
On the defensive side: Avellino in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Avellino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Reggiana vs Avellino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Reggiana and Avellino matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Reggiana's games and 50% of Avellino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Reggiana and Avellino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Reggiana's recent games and 33% of Avellino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Avellino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Reggiana's recent matches and 67% of Avellino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Reggiana and Avellino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 26, as Reggiana and Avellino drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.31 xG and Avellino 0.89 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Avellino attack 0.75 / defence 1.18, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 46% | Draw 29% | Avellino 25%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 52%, Avellino 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Avellino's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.00 PPG, Avellino 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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