Pisa 1-3 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Pisa take on Frosinone.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Frosinone travel to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to take on Pisa. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Frosinone — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Frosinone are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Pisa have won 1, Frosinone 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Pisa trading profile (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Frosinone trading profile (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 51% versus Frosinone 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 37% | Frosinone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.86 xG and Frosinone 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.048 / defence 0.952 | Frosinone attack 1.024 / defence 0.715. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.010. Frosinone's defence strength of 0.715 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Pisa games / 73 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 29% | Draw 36% | Frosinone 36%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Frosinone 2.78. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Frosinone 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 29% | Draw 36% | Frosinone 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Pisa 0.86 / Frosinone 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.048 / def 0.952 | Frosinone attack 1.024 / def 0.715 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Frosinone xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Frosinone kick off?
Pisa vs Frosinone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Frosinone?
Pisa 1 - 3 Frosinone.
Where is Pisa vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Frosinone part of?
Pisa vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 29% chance of winning, Frosinone a 36% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Pisa and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Pisa and Frosinone in?
Pisa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Frosinone (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.05) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Pisa's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.51
36%
2.78
36%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Pisa xG
Total xG
1.84
0.98
Frosinone xG
3.51
29%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.82
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
42%
2.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.9 | 15.6 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Pisa and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Pisa and 0.98 for Frosinone, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pisa come into this having played 73 games, going 26W 26D 21L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.77 PPG from 73 outings (36W 21D 16L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pisa on 1.42 PPG, Frosinone on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pisa's home form reads 16W 13D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.42 points per game from 36 outings (13W 12D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pisa are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.53 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Frosinone in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 26W 26D 21L in their last 73 games (1.42 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 36W 21D 16L in their last 73 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Frosinone away?
Pisa's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.69 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Pisa or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Frosinone in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 2, Frosinone have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Pisa 1-0 Frosinone.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 53%, Frosinone 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pisa) and 39% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Frosinone in 31%; Frosinone in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Pisa's recent matches and 47% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pisa's recent games and 39% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Frosinone tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Pisa 1-3 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.86 xG and Frosinone 0.98 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Frosinone outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Frosinone attack 1.02 / defence 0.71, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 29% | Draw 36% | Frosinone 36%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 37%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.42 PPG, Frosinone 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.