Perugia 0-5 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Perugia take on Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Curi plays host to Perugia versus Cagliari in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Perugia have posted 3W 5D 2L at Stadio Renato Curi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Curi. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Perugia are significantly better at Stadio Renato Curi than their overall form suggests.
Cagliari (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Cagliari have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Cagliari are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Perugia lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 2–3 with Cagliari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Cagliari half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Perugia 47% versus Cagliari 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Perugia 34% | Cagliari 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Perugia 0.97 xG and Cagliari 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Perugia attack 0.883 / defence 1.033 | Cagliari attack 0.892 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 0.983. Data: 73 Perugia games / 35 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Perugia 34% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 30%. Fair-value odds: Perugia 2.94 | Draw 2.78 | Cagliari 3.33. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Perugia 40% | Cagliari 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Perugia vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Renato Curi • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Perugia 34% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Perugia 0.97 / Cagliari 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Perugia attack 0.883 / def 1.033 | Cagliari attack 0.892 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.148 / away 0.983 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Perugia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Cagliari xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Perugia vs Cagliari kick off?
Perugia vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Stadio Renato Curi.
What was the final score in Perugia vs Cagliari?
Perugia 0 - 5 Cagliari.
Where is Perugia vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Curi.
What competition is Perugia vs Cagliari part of?
Perugia vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Perugia vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Perugia a 34% chance of winning, Cagliari a 30% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Perugia vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Perugia and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Perugia vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Perugia 0W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Perugia and Cagliari in?
Perugia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Perugia's attack at 0.88x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.89x) against Perugia's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
36%
2.82
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Perugia xG
Total xG
1.88
0.91
Cagliari xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 13.8 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.5 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Perugia vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Perugia and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Perugia and 0.91 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Perugia vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Perugia come into this having played 73 games, going 22W 25D 26L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 1.11 PPG from 73 outings (18W 27D 28L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Perugia against 1.11 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Perugia's home form reads 11W 14D 11L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.83 points per game from 36 outings (5W 15D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Perugia are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Perugia
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Perugia and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Perugia have gone 22W 25D 26L in their last 73 games (1.25 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 18W 27D 28L in their last 73 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Perugia at home or Cagliari away?
Perugia's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Perugia at home: 1.31 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Perugia or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Perugia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cagliari in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Perugia
0
Draws
2
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Perugia and Cagliari?
From 2 meetings on record, Perugia have won 0, Cagliari have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Perugia and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2023, when Perugia 0-5 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Perugia and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Perugia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Perugia 44%, Cagliari 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Perugia) and 42% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Perugia keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Perugia have failed to score in 31% of games; Cagliari in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Perugia home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Perugia play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Perugia's recent matches and 47% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Perugia vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Perugia's recent games and 42% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Perugia and Cagliari tend to score early?
Perugia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cagliari run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Perugia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Perugia 0-5 at Stadio Renato Curi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Perugia 0.97 xG and Cagliari 0.91 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Perugia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Cagliari outscored their 0.91 projection by 4.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Perugia attack 0.88 / defence 1.03 against Cagliari attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Perugia 34% | Draw 36% | Cagliari 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Perugia 34%, Cagliari 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Perugia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cagliari's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Perugia 1.25 PPG, Cagliari 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Perugia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.