Ternana 0-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Ternana take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Libero Liberati plays host to Ternana versus Sudtirol in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ternana at Stadio Libero Liberati this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ternana are significantly better at Stadio Libero Liberati than their overall form suggests.
Sudtirol (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ternana 0W, Sudtirol 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ternana — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 24% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 49% versus Sudtirol 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ternana 51% | Sudtirol 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.84 xG and Sudtirol 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.018 / defence 1.251 | Sudtirol attack 0.752 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.010. Sudtirol's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 73 Ternana games / 35 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 29% | Draw 37% | Sudtirol 35%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 3.45 | Draw 2.70 | Sudtirol 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.79 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 60% | Sudtirol 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 29% | Draw 37% | Sudtirol 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Ternana 0.84 / Sudtirol 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.018 / def 1.251 | Sudtirol attack 0.752 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Sudtirol xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Sudtirol kick off?
Ternana vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Ternana 0 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Ternana vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Sudtirol part of?
Ternana vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 29% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ternana and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Ternana 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Ternana and Sudtirol in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ternana's attack at 1.02x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.75x) against Ternana's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.48
37%
2.74
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Ternana xG
Total xG
1.79
0.95
Sudtirol xG
3.48
29%
Home win
2.74
37%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 15.8 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Ternana and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Ternana and 0.95 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ternana come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 10D 14L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.54 PPG from 35 outings (13W 15D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Ternana against 1.54 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Ternana's home form reads 8W 5D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Ternana are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ternana are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.00 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Sudtirol in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 13W 15D 7L in their last 35 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Sudtirol away?
Ternana's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.71 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Ternana or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ternana have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Ternana
2
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Sudtirol?
From 4 meetings on record, Ternana have won 0, Sudtirol have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Sudtirol 4-3 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 47%, Sudtirol 24% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 47% for Ternana and 18% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sudtirol in 53%; Sudtirol in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ternana's recent matches and 24% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Ternana's recent games and 18% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sudtirol edge out Ternana 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Ternana 0-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.84 xG and Sudtirol 0.95 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ternana fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.02 / defence 1.25 against Sudtirol attack 0.75 / defence 0.72, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 29% | Draw 37% | Sudtirol 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 51%, Sudtirol 26%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.23 PPG, Sudtirol 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.