Cittadella 3-1 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cittadella take on Benevento.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cittadella and Benevento meet at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cittadella's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Benevento have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Benevento's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Benevento, who have claimed 3 wins from 3 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2022, ended 0–1 with Benevento winning.
It is worth noting that Benevento have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Cittadella goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Benevento goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 41% versus Benevento 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 33% | Benevento 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 0.95 xG and Benevento 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.809 / defence 1.133 | Benevento attack 0.824 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.010. Data: 73 Cittadella games / 73 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 32% | Draw 36% | Benevento 32%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.12 | Draw 2.78 | Benevento 3.12. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 20% | Benevento 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 32% | Draw 36% | Benevento 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 39% | xG Cittadella 0.95 / Benevento 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.809 / def 1.133 | Benevento attack 0.824 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.010 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Benevento xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Benevento kick off?
Cittadella vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Benevento?
Cittadella 3 - 1 Benevento.
Where is Cittadella vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Benevento part of?
Cittadella vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 32% chance of winning, Benevento a 32% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Cittadella and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Benevento?
Record (3 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 0 | Benevento 3W.
What form are Cittadella and Benevento in?
Cittadella (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Benevento (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (0.81) and Benevento's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.82x) against Cittadella's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
36%
2.81
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Cittadella xG
Total xG
1.89
0.94
Benevento xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
12%
8.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 14.2 | 6.7 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Cittadella and 0.94 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Cittadella have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 21W 27D 25L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Benevento's form line: 25W 22D 26L from 73 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Cittadella against 1.33 for Benevento. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cittadella have posted 1.25 PPG from 36 outings (11W 12D 13L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 11W 13D 12L from 36 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cittadella are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.21 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Current Season
Benevento
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 21W 27D 25L in their last 73 games (1.23 PPG), while Benevento have gone 25W 22D 26L in their last 73 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.25 PPG; Benevento away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Benevento in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benevento won 4-1 on 21 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cittadella
0
Draws
3
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Benevento?
From 4 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 1, Benevento have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Cittadella 3-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 36%, Benevento 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Cittadella and 25% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 42% of games; Benevento in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cittadella's recent matches and 42% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cittadella's recent games and 25% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Benevento tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Benevento in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cittadella cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cittadella beat Benevento 3-1 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 0.95 xG and Benevento 0.94 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cittadella beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against Benevento attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 32% | Draw 36% | Benevento 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cittadella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 33%, Benevento 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.23 PPG, Benevento 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cittadella win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Benevento (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.