Pordenone 0-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pordenone vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 28 as Pordenone welcome Pisa to Stadio Guido Teghil. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 March 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pordenone stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pordenone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pordenone's home record at Stadio Guido Teghil: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Pisa have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Pisa's 1.40 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Pordenone's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Pordenone, 0 for Pisa and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pordenone in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Pisa in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pordenone 48% versus Pisa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pordenone 41% | Pisa 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pordenone 0.70 xG and Pisa 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pordenone attack 0.726 / defence 1.518 | Pisa attack 0.826 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.036 / away 1.116. Pordenone's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Pordenone games / 27 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pordenone 16% | Draw 32% | Pisa 51%. Fair-value odds: Pordenone 6.25 | Draw 3.12 | Pisa 1.96. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pordenone 60% | Pisa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pordenone vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Guido Teghil • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pordenone 16% | Draw 32% | Pisa 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 40% | xG Pordenone 0.70 / Pisa 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Pordenone attack 0.726 / def 1.518 | Pisa attack 0.826 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.036 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Pisa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Pordenone xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Pisa xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pordenone vs Pisa kick off?
Pordenone vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What was the final score in Pordenone vs Pisa?
Pordenone 0 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Pordenone vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Guido Teghil.
What competition is Pordenone vs Pisa part of?
Pordenone vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pordenone vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Pordenone a 16% chance of winning, Pisa a 51% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pordenone vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Pordenone and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Pordenone vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Pisa?
Record (1 meetings): Pordenone 0W | Draws 1 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Pordenone and Pisa in?
Pordenone (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Pordenone's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Pordenone's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
16%
6.18
32%
3.08
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Pordenone xG
Total xG
2.10
1.40
Pisa xG
6.18
16%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
50%
2.01
Win to Nil
4%
25.08
26%
3.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 17.2 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pordenone vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Pordenone and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Pordenone and 1.40 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Pordenone vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, Pordenone have picked up 0.44 PPG on a 2W 6D 19L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pordenone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa's form line: 13W 10D 4L from 27 games, 1.81 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 1.37 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pordenone.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pordenone have posted 0.54 PPG from 13 outings (1W 4D 8L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 6W 4D 3L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Pordenone are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.30 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Pisa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pordenone
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pordenone and Pisa in coming into this match?
Pordenone have gone 2W 6D 19L in their last 27 games (0.44 PPG), while Pisa have gone 13W 10D 4L in their last 27 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pordenone at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pordenone at home: 0.54 PPG; Pisa away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Pordenone or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pordenone have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Pisa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pordenone
1
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pordenone and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Pordenone have won 0, Pisa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pordenone and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Pordenone 0-1 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pordenone and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pordenone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pordenone 54%, Pisa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Pordenone and 31% for Pisa.
On the defensive side: Pisa in 31%; Pordenone have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pordenone home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pordenone play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Pordenone's recent matches and 54% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pordenone vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Pordenone's recent games and 31% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pordenone and Pisa tend to score early?
Pordenone have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pisa in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pisa edge out Pordenone 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Pordenone 0-1 at Stadio Guido Teghil, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pordenone 0.70 xG and Pisa 1.40 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pordenone attack 0.73 / defence 1.52 against Pisa attack 0.83 / defence 0.93, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pordenone 16% | Draw 32% | Pisa 51%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pordenone 41%, Pisa 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pordenone's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pordenone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.