Reggina 0-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Oreste Granillo plays host to Reggina versus Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 17 December 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Reggina have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Oreste Granillo this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
Bari (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari away from home this season: 5W 3D 1L from 9 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Reggina, 1.40 for Bari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 35% versus Bari 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 59% | Bari 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.43 xG and Bari 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.350 / defence 1.236 | Bari attack 1.132 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.069. Reggina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.350 — their λ of 1.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Reggina games / 17 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 34% | Draw 29% | Bari 37%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Bari 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.43 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Reggina 40% | Bari 56%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Dec 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 34% | Draw 29% | Bari 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Reggina 1.43 / Bari 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.350 / def 1.236 | Bari attack 1.132 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Bari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Bari xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Bari kick off?
Reggina vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 17 December 2022 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Bari?
Reggina 0 - 0 Bari.
Where is Reggina vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Bari part of?
Reggina vs Bari is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 34% chance of winning, Bari a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Reggina and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Bari?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggina and Bari in?
Reggina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Bari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Reggina's attack rating (1.35) and Bari's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bari's attack (1.13x) against Reggina's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.51
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.93
1.50
Bari xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
22%
4.46
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
8%
13.01
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Reggina and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Reggina and 1.50 for Bari, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Reggina's recent record stands at 10W 2D 5L from 17 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 2L across 17 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.88 PPG for Reggina against 1.71 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Reggina have managed 5W 1D 2L from 8 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bari's away record stands at 5W 2D 1L across 8 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.71 PPG overall record — Bari travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Reggina are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.71 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Bari in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 10W 2D 5L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Bari have gone 7W 8D 2L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Bari away?
Bari's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 2.00 PPG; Bari away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Reggina or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Bari in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Reggina
1
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Bari?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 0, Bari have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2023, when Bari 1-0 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Reggina and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 38%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Reggina and 38% for Bari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bari in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Reggina's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Reggina's matches and 38% of Bari's.
Do Reggina and Bari tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bari in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reggina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 18, as Reggina and Bari drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.43 xG and Bari 1.50 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reggina fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bari landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.35 / defence 1.24 against Bari attack 1.13 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 34% | Draw 29% | Bari 37%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 59%, Bari 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bari's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.88 PPG, Bari 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.