Brescia 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brescia at 42%, yet in-form Palermo provide a compelling counter-argument — this Brescia vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brescia and Palermo meet at Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Monday 26 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.
Palermo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 0.80 PPG clear of Brescia in recent Serie B fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games).
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 50% versus Palermo 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 33% | Palermo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.26 xG and Palermo 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.959 / defence 1.001 | Palermo attack 0.856 / defence 1.149. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.085. Data: 56 Brescia games / 18 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 42% | Draw 33% | Palermo 25%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.38 | Draw 3.03 | Palermo 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Palermo (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 50% | Palermo 38% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 42% | Draw 33% | Palermo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Brescia 1.26 / Palermo 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.959 / def 1.001 | Palermo attack 0.856 / def 1.149 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Brescia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Palermo xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Palermo kick off?
Brescia vs Palermo kicked off at 11:30 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Palermo?
Brescia 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Brescia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Palermo part of?
Brescia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 42% chance of winning, Palermo a 25% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Brescia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Palermo in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Brescia's attack rating (0.96) and Palermo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (0.86x) against Brescia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
42%
2.39
33%
3.05
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.19
0.93
Palermo xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Brescia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Brescia and 0.93 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brescia's recent record stands at 6W 6D 6L from 18 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 7L across 18 games — 1.28 PPG, with L-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Brescia against 1.28 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 3W 3D 2L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 2W 2D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Palermo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 6W 6D 6L in their last 18 games (1.33 PPG), while Palermo have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Palermo away?
Brescia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.50 PPG; Palermo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Brescia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Palermo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brescia have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Brescia
2
Draws
2
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Brescia have won 2, Palermo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Palermo 1-0 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Palermo 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Brescia and 38% for Palermo.
On the defensive side: Palermo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Palermo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 38% of Palermo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Brescia's recent games and 38% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Palermo tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palermo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brescia and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia and Palermo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.26 xG and Palermo 0.93 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.96 / defence 1.00 against Palermo attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 42% | Draw 33% | Palermo 25%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 33%, Palermo 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.33 PPG, Palermo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.