Alessandria 1-3 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alessandria vs Ascoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 5 as Alessandria welcome Ascoli to Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Alessandria stand at 0W 0D 4L from 4 Serie B matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 3.00 conceded. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Alessandria have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 0D 1L from 4 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ascoli are 2.25 PPG ahead (2.25 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Alessandria in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Ascoli in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 75% versus Ascoli 25%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alessandria 75% | Ascoli 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.10 xG and Ascoli 1.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.925 / defence 1.335 | Ascoli attack 0.963 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.351. Data: 4 Alessandria games / 4 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 23% | Draw 26% | Ascoli 51%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Ascoli 1.96. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Alessandria 75% | Ascoli 25%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 23% | Draw 26% | Ascoli 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Alessandria 1.10 / Ascoli 1.74 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.925 / def 1.335 | Ascoli attack 0.963 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.74
Ascoli xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Ascoli kick off?
Alessandria vs Ascoli kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Ascoli?
Alessandria 1 - 3 Ascoli.
Where is Alessandria vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Ascoli part of?
Alessandria vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 23% chance of winning, Ascoli a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Alessandria and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Ascoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Ascoli in?
Alessandria (all comps): 0W-0D-4L in 4 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-L-L-L. Ascoli (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Alessandria's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Ascoli's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Alessandria's defence, projects 1.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
23%
4.42
26%
3.79
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.83
1.74
Ascoli xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
18%
5.67
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
25.10
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.74 for Ascoli, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Alessandria come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 0D 4L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Alessandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Ascoli sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 2.25 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Alessandria are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Alessandria have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Ascoli in 25%.
Defensively: Ascoli in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 0W 0D 4L in their last 4 games (0.00 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have Alessandria or Ascoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Ascoli in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Alessandria and Ascoli runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
0
Draws
2
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Ascoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Ascoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Ascoli 3-0 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Ascoli?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 75%, Ascoli 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Alessandria) and 25% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Ascoli in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Alessandria's recent matches and 25% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Alessandria's recent games and 25% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Ascoli tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Alessandria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ascoli beat Alessandria 1-3 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.10 xG and Ascoli 1.74 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ascoli outscored their 1.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.93 / defence 1.33 against Ascoli attack 0.96 / defence 1.14, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 23% | Draw 26% | Ascoli 51%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 75%, Ascoli 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.00. Form held, and they took the win. Ascoli scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.