Parma 2-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Spezia make the trip to Stadio Ennio Tardini to face Parma in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spezia's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Parma's favour (2.10 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Parma have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Spezia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Parma lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Parma half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 51% versus Spezia 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 45% | Spezia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.71 xG and Spezia 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.146 / defence 1.024 | Spezia attack 0.749 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.240. Data: 70 Parma games / 32 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 54% | Draw 27% | Spezia 19%. Fair-value odds: Parma 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Spezia 5.26. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Parma 80% | Spezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 54% | Draw 27% | Spezia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Parma 1.71 / Spezia 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.146 / def 1.024 | Spezia attack 0.749 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Parma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Spezia xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Spezia kick off?
Parma vs Spezia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Spezia?
Parma 2 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Parma vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Spezia part of?
Parma vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 54% chance of winning, Spezia a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Parma and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Spezia?
Record (1 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 0 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Parma and Spezia in?
Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Spezia (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Parma's attack at 1.15x the league average against Spezia's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.75x) against Parma's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 70/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.74
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Parma xG
Total xG
2.66
0.95
Spezia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
4%
28.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 11.4 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Parma and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Parma and 0.95 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma come into this having played 71 games, going 36W 19D 16L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.93 PPG from 71 outings (13W 27D 31L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Parma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.86 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Parma's home form reads 20W 8D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.77 points per game from 35 outings (5W 12D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.89 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Spezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Spezia in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 36W 19D 16L in their last 71 games (1.79 PPG), while Spezia have gone 13W 27D 31L in their last 71 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Spezia away?
Parma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.94 PPG; Spezia away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Parma or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Spezia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Parma
0
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Spezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Spezia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Parma 2-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Spezia?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 51%, Spezia 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Parma) and 51% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Spezia in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Parma's recent matches and 49% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Parma's recent games and 51% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Spezia tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Spezia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Spezia 2-0 at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.71 xG and Spezia 0.95 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Spezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Spezia attack 0.75 / defence 1.20, drawn from 70/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 54% | Draw 27% | Spezia 19%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 45%, Spezia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Spezia's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Parma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.