Palermo 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Parma travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 April 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Palermo's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Renzo Barbera this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Parma have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Parma are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Palermo, 1 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Palermo in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Parma in-play tendencies (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 59% versus Parma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 52% | Parma 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.35 xG and Parma 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.278 / defence 1.229 | Parma attack 1.167 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.206. Palermo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 71 Palermo games / 71 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 29% | Draw 26% | Parma 45%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.45 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 2.22. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 60% | Parma 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 29% | Draw 26% | Parma 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Palermo 1.35 / Parma 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.278 / def 1.229 | Parma attack 1.167 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Parma (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Parma xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Parma kick off?
Palermo vs Parma kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 April 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Parma?
Palermo 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Palermo vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Parma part of?
Palermo vs Parma is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 29% chance of winning, Parma a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Palermo and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Parma?
Record (3 meetings): Palermo 1W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Palermo and Parma in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palermo's attack at 1.28x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
29%
3.48
26%
3.85
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Palermo xG
Total xG
3.08
1.73
Parma xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
5%
19.65
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Palermo and 1.73 for Parma, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 71 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 25W 25D 21L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Parma's form line: 37W 18D 16L from 71 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Palermo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.66 PPG from 35 outings (16W 10D 9L).
On the road, Parma have gone 16W 10D 9L from 35 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.51 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Current Season
Parma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Parma in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 25W 25D 21L in their last 71 games (1.41 PPG), while Parma have gone 37W 18D 16L in their last 71 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Parma away?
Palermo's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.66 PPG; Parma away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Palermo or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Parma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Parma runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Palermo's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Parma?
From 4 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Parma have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2024, when Palermo 0-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 51%, Parma 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Palermo) and 51% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Parma in 31%; Palermo have failed to score in 26% of games; Parma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Palermo's recent matches and 51% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Palermo's recent games and 51% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Parma tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Parma in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palermo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 34, as Palermo and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.35 xG and Parma 1.73 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palermo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.28 / defence 1.23 against Parma attack 1.17 / defence 0.85, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 29% | Draw 26% | Parma 45%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 52%, Parma 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Parma's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.