Lecco 1-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reggiana at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecco vs Reggiana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 33 as Lecco welcome Reggiana to Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Lecco have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Lecco's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Lecco are significantly better at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Reggiana's 1.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Lecco's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Lecco have won 0, Reggiana 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lecco in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 56% versus Reggiana 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 53% | Reggiana 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 0.78 xG and Reggiana 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.704 / defence 1.367 | Reggiana attack 0.977 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.240. Lecco's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Lecco games / 32 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 16% | Draw 27% | Reggiana 57%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 6.25 | Draw 3.70 | Reggiana 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Reggiana (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reggiana at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Lecco 60% | Reggiana 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 16% | Draw 27% | Reggiana 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Lecco 0.78 / Reggiana 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.704 / def 1.367 | Reggiana attack 0.977 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Reggiana (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Reggiana xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Reggiana kick off?
Lecco vs Reggiana kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Reggiana?
Lecco 1 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Lecco vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Reggiana part of?
Lecco vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 16% chance of winning, Reggiana a 57% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reggiana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lecco and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Reggiana?
Record (1 meetings): Lecco 0W | Draws 1 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Lecco and Reggiana in?
Lecco (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Reggiana (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lecco's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Lecco's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggiana Win
16%
6.22
27%
3.69
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.44
1.66
Reggiana xG
6.22
16%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
3%
32.56
26%
3.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 14.5 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lecco and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Lecco and 1.66 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Reggiana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 32 outings, Lecco have picked up 0.72 PPG on a 5W 8D 19L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Reggiana's form line: 8W 16D 8L from 32 games, 1.25 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Reggiana are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecco.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lecco have posted 0.73 PPG from 15 outings (3W 2D 10L).
On the road, Reggiana have gone 6W 6D 3L from 15 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggiana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lecco are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.06 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Current Season
Reggiana
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 5W 8D 19L in their last 32 games (0.72 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 8W 16D 8L in their last 32 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Reggiana away?
Reggiana's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 0.73 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Lecco or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Reggiana in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lecco and Reggiana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecco
1
Draws
0
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Reggiana?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 1, Reggiana have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Lecco 1-0 Reggiana.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Reggiana?
Lecco have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 53%, Reggiana 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lecco) and 53% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Reggiana in 40%; Lecco have failed to score in 40% of games; Reggiana in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Lecco's recent matches and 47% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lecco vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lecco's recent games and 53% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecco and Reggiana tend to score early?
Lecco have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lecco defy the odds to beat Reggiana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecco beat Reggiana 1-0 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 0.78 xG and Reggiana 1.66 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Reggiana landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.70 / defence 1.37 against Reggiana attack 0.98 / defence 0.89, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 16% | Draw 27% | Reggiana 57%, with Reggiana to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Lecco win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 53%, Reggiana 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Reggiana's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggiana arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Lecco winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lecco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.