Spezia 1-1 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Lecco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Alberto Picco plays host to Spezia versus Lecco in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lecco (all games): 0W 2D 8L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Lecco's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Spezia's 1.70 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Lecco's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Spezia 0W, Lecco 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Spezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Lecco goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 52% versus Lecco 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 48% | Lecco 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.80 xG and Lecco 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.922 / defence 1.070 | Lecco attack 0.742 / defence 1.528. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.239. Lecco bring a strong defensive rating of 1.528 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Spezia games / 31 Lecco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 56% | Draw 25% | Lecco 20%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Lecco 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Lecco 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 56% | Draw 25% | Lecco 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Spezia 1.80 / Lecco 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.922 / def 1.070 | Lecco attack 0.742 / def 1.528 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Spezia (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Lecco xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Lecco kick off?
Spezia vs Lecco kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Lecco?
Spezia 1 - 1 Lecco.
Where is Spezia vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Lecco part of?
Spezia vs Lecco is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 56% chance of winning, Lecco a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Spezia and Lecco will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Lecco?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 1 | Lecco 0W.
What form are Spezia and Lecco in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Lecco (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Spezia's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Lecco's defensive record (1.53x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Lecco's attack (0.74x) against Spezia's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
56%
1.80
25%
4.03
20%
5.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.78
0.98
Lecco xG
1.80
56%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.11
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
17%
6.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.81
3%
30.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Spezia and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Spezia and 0.98 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Lecco?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia come into this having played 31 games, going 7W 13D 11L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 0.71 PPG from 31 outings (5W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Spezia against 0.71 for Lecco. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Spezia's home form reads 4W 6D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 0.67 points per game from 15 outings (2W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 0.94 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Lecco
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Lecco in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 7W 13D 11L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Lecco have gone 5W 7D 19L in their last 31 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Lecco away?
Spezia's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.20 PPG; Lecco away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Spezia
2
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Lecco?
From 2 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Lecco have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Lecco last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Spezia 1-1 Lecco.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 47%, Lecco 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Spezia) and 60% (Lecco).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 47% of games; Lecco in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Lecco?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Spezia's recent matches and 60% of Lecco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Lecco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Spezia's recent games and 60% of Lecco's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Lecco tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Lecco in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spezia and Lecco share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 32, as Spezia and Lecco drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.80 xG and Lecco 0.98 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.92 / defence 1.07 against Lecco attack 0.74 / defence 1.53, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 56% | Draw 25% | Lecco 20%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 48%, Lecco 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Lecco's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.10 PPG, Lecco 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lecco (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.