Sampdoria 0-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sampdoria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sampdoria vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sampdoria and Sudtirol meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sampdoria's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sudtirol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sudtirol's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sampdoria register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Sudtirol in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–3 with Sudtirol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 56% versus Sudtirol 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 50% | Sudtirol 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.64 xG and Sudtirol 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 1.118 / defence 1.198 | Sudtirol attack 0.933 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.244. Data: 32 Sampdoria games / 70 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 42% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 31%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Sudtirol 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sampdoria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 80% | Sudtirol 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 42% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Sampdoria 1.64 / Sudtirol 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 1.118 / def 1.198 | Sudtirol attack 0.933 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sudtirol xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Sudtirol kick off?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Sampdoria 0 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol part of?
Sampdoria vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 42% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sampdoria and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Sampdoria 0W | Draws 0 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Sampdoria and Sudtirol in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sampdoria's attack rating (1.12) and Sudtirol's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.93x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.71
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
3.03
1.39
Sudtirol xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
19%
5.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.58
6%
16.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.39 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sampdoria come into this having played 70 games, going 16W 17D 37L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.47 PPG from 70 outings (26W 25D 19L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Sudtirol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sampdoria's home form reads 7W 10D 17L across 34 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.38 points per game from 34 outings (12W 11D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sampdoria are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.11 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 16W 17D 37L in their last 70 games (0.93 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 26W 25D 19L in their last 70 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.91 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sampdoria
0
Draws
4
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 2, Sudtirol have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Sudtirol?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 56%, Sudtirol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sampdoria) and 35% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 35%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 50% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sampdoria's recent games and 35% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sudtirol defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Sampdoria 0-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.64 xG and Sudtirol 1.39 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 1.12 / defence 1.20 against Sudtirol attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 42% | Draw 27% | Sudtirol 31%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 50%, Sudtirol 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.93. Form held, and they took the win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.