Cremonese 2-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cremonese take on Brescia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Brescia meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Cremonese (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Serie B appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 6D 0L. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cremonese 0W, Brescia 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Brescia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cremonese — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Brescia — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 52% versus Brescia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cremonese 41% | Brescia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.99 xG and Brescia 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 1.176 / defence 1.048 | Brescia attack 0.932 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.129. Data: 27 Cremonese games / 27 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 36% | Brescia 35%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Brescia 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 70% | Brescia 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 29% | Draw 36% | Brescia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 0.99 / Brescia 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 1.176 / def 1.048 | Brescia attack 0.932 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Brescia xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Brescia kick off?
Cremonese vs Brescia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Brescia?
Cremonese 2 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Cremonese vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Brescia part of?
Cremonese vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 29% chance of winning, Brescia a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 0 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Brescia in?
Cremonese (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. Brescia (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (1.18) and Brescia's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.93x) against Cremonese's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.42
36%
2.80
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.09
1.10
Brescia xG
3.42
29%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.29
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.6 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.10 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cremonese come into this having played 27 games, going 14W 8D 5L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-D. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.89 PPG from 27 outings (14W 9D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Cremonese against 1.89 for Brescia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cremonese's home form reads 7W 5D 1L across 13 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 2.31 points per game from 13 outings (9W 3D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — Brescia travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.56 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Brescia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Brescia in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 14W 8D 5L in their last 27 games (1.85 PPG), while Brescia have gone 14W 9D 4L in their last 27 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 2.00 PPG; Brescia away: 2.31 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Brescia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cremonese
1
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 3, Brescia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Cremonese 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Brescia?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 54%, Brescia 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Cremonese and 31% for Brescia.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Brescia in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Cremonese's recent matches and 38% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cremonese's recent games and 31% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Brescia tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Brescia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Brescia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Brescia 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.99 xG and Brescia 1.10 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.18 / defence 1.05 against Brescia attack 0.93 / defence 0.83, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 29% | Draw 36% | Brescia 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 41%, Brescia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.85 PPG, Brescia 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.