Cosenza 0-0 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cosenza's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Parma's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Parma have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Parma arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Cosenza, 2 for Parma and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Cosenza 1–0 Parma — a Cosenza win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 48% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 38% | Parma 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.39 xG and Parma 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.105 / defence 1.106 | Parma attack 1.418 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.127. Parma have an above-average attack rating of 1.418, which lifts their away xG to 1.77. Data: built from Cosenza's last 54 games and Parma's last 54.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 30% | Draw 25% | Parma 46%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.38 | Draw 4.08 | Parma 2.18. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.39 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Parma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cosenza's last 10 home games and Parma's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 50% (last 10 home games) | Parma 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 30% | Draw 25% | Parma 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Cosenza 1.39 / Parma 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.105 / def 1.106 | Parma attack 1.418 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Parma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Parma xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Parma FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Parma kick off?
Cosenza vs Parma kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Parma?
Cosenza 0 - 0 Parma.
Where is Cosenza vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Parma part of?
Cosenza vs Parma is a Serie B fixture (matchday 17) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 30% chance of winning, Parma a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cosenza and Parma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cosenza vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (1.10) and Parma's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Parma's attack (1.42x) against Cosenza's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 54 games and Parma's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
30%
3.38
25%
4.08
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Cosenza xG
Total xG
3.16
1.77
Parma xG
3.38
30%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
17%
5.86
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
5%
19.78
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Parma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.77 for Parma, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 15W 18D 23L from 56 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 14L across 56 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 10W 9D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 11W 8D 8L across their last 27 away games, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.46 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Parma
Blended
Cosenza (Home) vs Parma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Cosenza vs Parma Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Parma in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 15W 18D 23L in their last 56 games (1.12 PPG), while Parma have gone 27W 15D 14L in their last 56 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.44 PPG; Parma away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Cosenza and Parma, the earliest from November 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Parma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Parma?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 1, Parma have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Parma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 February 2024: Parma 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 56%, Parma 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cosenza) and 48% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Parma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Parma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Parma matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Cosenza's recent matches and 52% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cosenza and Parma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cosenza's recent games and 48% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Parma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Cosenza's recent matches and 70% of Parma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cosenza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 17, as Cosenza and Parma drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.39 xG and Parma 1.77 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Parma landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.10 / defence 1.11 against Parma attack 1.42 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 30% | Draw 25% | Parma 46%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 38%, Parma 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Parma's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Parma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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