Palermo 3-2 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Renzo Barbera to take on Palermo. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023, 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Palermo have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Palermo) versus 1.00 (Pisa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Palermo, 0 for Pisa and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Pisa trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 56% versus Pisa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 44% | Pisa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.05 xG and Pisa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.965 / defence 1.105 | Pisa attack 0.789 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.127. Data: 54 Palermo games / 54 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 36% | Draw 32% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Pisa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Palermo 60% | Pisa 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 36% | Draw 32% | Pisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Palermo 1.05 / Pisa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.965 / def 1.105 | Pisa attack 0.789 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Palermo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Pisa xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Pisa kick off?
Palermo vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Palermo 3 - 2 Pisa.
Where is Palermo vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Pisa part of?
Palermo vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 36% chance of winning, Pisa a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Palermo and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 2 | Pisa 0W.
What form are Palermo and Pisa in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Pisa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palermo's attack at 0.96x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
36%
2.80
32%
3.10
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.04
0.98
Pisa xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
11%
8.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Palermo and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Palermo and 0.98 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palermo's recent record stands at 18W 20D 16L from 54 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 15W 20D 19L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.37 PPG, Pisa on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Palermo have managed 11W 9D 7L from 27 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 7W 11D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Palermo are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.15 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Pisa in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 18W 20D 16L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Pisa have gone 15W 20D 19L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Pisa away?
Palermo's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.56 PPG; Pisa away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Palermo or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Pisa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Pisa have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Palermo's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Palermo
2
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Pisa have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2025, when Palermo 1-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palermo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 48%, Pisa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Palermo) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pisa in 41%; Palermo have failed to score in 30% of games; Pisa in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Palermo's recent matches and 44% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Palermo's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Palermo edge out Pisa 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Pisa 3-2 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.05 xG and Pisa 0.98 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Pisa attack 0.79 / defence 0.95, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 36% | Draw 32% | Pisa 32%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 44%, Pisa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.37 PPG, Pisa 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.