Ternana 2-1 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Feralpisalo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Feralpisalo make the trip to Stadio Libero Liberati to face Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ternana's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Libero Liberati, Ternana have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Feralpisalo have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feralpisalo's away record: 1W 2D 5L from 8 road trips in Serie B this season (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Ternana — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Feralpisalo — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 60% versus Feralpisalo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 53% | Feralpisalo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.36 xG and Feralpisalo 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.874 / defence 0.911 | Feralpisalo attack 0.722 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.152. Feralpisalo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Ternana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Ternana games / 15 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 50% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 19%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.00 | Draw 3.23 | Feralpisalo 5.26. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ternana are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ternana if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 40% | Feralpisalo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 50% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Ternana 1.36 / Feralpisalo 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.874 / def 0.911 | Feralpisalo attack 0.722 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Ternana (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Feralpisalo xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Ternana vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Ternana 2 - 1 Feralpisalo.
Where is Ternana vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Feralpisalo part of?
Ternana vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 50% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 19% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ternana and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Feralpisalo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ternana and Feralpisalo in?
Ternana (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Feralpisalo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ternana's attack rating (0.87) and Feralpisalo's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Feralpisalo's attack (0.72x) against Ternana's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 53/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
50%
2.01
31%
3.24
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.12
0.76
Feralpisalo xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
5%
20.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 12.4 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Ternana and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Ternana and 0.76 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ternana's recent record stands at 2W 5D 8L from 15 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 10L across 15 games — 0.47 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Ternana against 0.47 for Feralpisalo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ternana have managed 1W 3D 4L from 8 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feralpisalo's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ternana are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.67 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 2W 5D 8L in their last 15 games (0.73 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 1W 4D 10L in their last 15 (0.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Feralpisalo away?
Ternana's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 0.75 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ternana
0
Draws
0
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Ternana have won 2, Feralpisalo have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2024, when Feralpisalo 0-1 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Feralpisalo?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ternana see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 38%, Feralpisalo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Ternana) and 62% (Feralpisalo).
On the defensive side: Ternana have failed to score in 50% of games; Feralpisalo in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Feralpisalo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Ternana's recent games and 62% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Feralpisalo tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Feralpisalo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ternana edge out Feralpisalo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Feralpisalo 2-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.36 xG and Feralpisalo 0.76 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.87 / defence 0.91 against Feralpisalo attack 0.72 / defence 1.43, drawn from 53/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 50% | Draw 31% | Feralpisalo 19%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 53%, Feralpisalo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 0.73 PPG, Feralpisalo 0.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.