Ternana 1-3 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Parma at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ternana vs Parma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Parma travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Ternana have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ternana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ternana's home record at Stadio Libero Liberati: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Parma — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Parma's 2.10 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Ternana's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ternana, 1 for Parma and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Parma trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 55% versus Parma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 52% | Parma 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 0.89 xG and Parma 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 0.771 / defence 0.852 | Parma attack 1.157 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.227. Ternana's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Ternana games / 65 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Parma 41%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Parma 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Ternana dominate the H2H record, yet Parma are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ternana 50% | Parma 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Parma 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Ternana 0.89 / Parma 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 0.771 / def 0.852 | Parma attack 1.157 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Parma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Parma xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Parma kick off?
Ternana vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Parma?
Ternana 1 - 3 Parma.
Where is Ternana vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Parma part of?
Ternana vs Parma is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 25% chance of winning, Parma a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Ternana and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Parma?
Record (5 meetings): Ternana 3W | Draws 1 | Parma 1W.
What form are Ternana and Parma in?
Ternana (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Parma (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ternana's attack at 0.77x the league average against Parma's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
25%
3.97
34%
2.98
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.10
1.21
Parma xG
3.97
25%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Ternana and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Ternana and 1.21 for Parma, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 18W 18D 29L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ternana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma's form line: 33W 17D 15L from 65 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ternana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.28 PPG from 32 outings (10W 11D 11L).
On the road, Parma have gone 14W 9D 9L from 32 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Ternana are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.51 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Parma in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 18W 18D 29L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Parma have gone 33W 17D 15L in their last 65 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.28 PPG; Parma away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Ternana or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ternana have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Parma in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Parma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ternana's record when hosting Parma specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
1
Draws
2
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Parma have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Ternana 1-3 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Parma?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 50%, Parma 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Ternana) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Parma in 31%; Ternana have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Ternana's recent matches and 50% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Ternana's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Parma tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Parma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Ternana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Ternana 1-3 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 0.89 xG and Parma 1.21 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Parma outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 0.77 / defence 0.85 against Parma attack 1.16 / defence 0.91, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 25% | Draw 34% | Parma 41%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 52%, Parma 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win. Ternana (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Parma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.