Modena 1-1 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cittadella at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Modena vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Modena welcome Cittadella to Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B (matchday 17). Kick-off is Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Modena stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Modena's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Cittadella have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Cittadella have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Cittadella's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Modena's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Modena have won 0, Cittadella 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Apr 2023, ended Modena 0–0 Cittadella — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Modena in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Cittadella in-play tendencies (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 56% versus Cittadella 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 44% | Cittadella 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 0.92 xG and Cittadella 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.913 / defence 1.054 | Cittadella attack 0.888 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.133. Data: built from Modena's last 54 games and Cittadella's last 54.
Result probabilities: Modena 30% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 37%. Fair-value odds: Modena 3.37 | Draw 3.00 | Cittadella 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Modena's last 10 home games and Cittadella's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Modena 50% (last 10 home games) | Cittadella 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, matchday 17 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 30% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Modena 0.92 / Cittadella 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.913 / def 1.054 | Cittadella attack 0.888 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cittadella xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Modena vs Cittadella FAQs
What time does Modena vs Cittadella kick off?
Modena vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Cittadella?
Modena 1 - 1 Cittadella.
Where is Modena vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Cittadella part of?
Modena vs Cittadella is a Serie B fixture (matchday 17) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 30% chance of winning, Cittadella a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Modena and Cittadella will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Modena vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Modena's attack at 0.91x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Modena's last 54 games and Cittadella's last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
30%
3.37
33%
3.00
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Modena xG
Total xG
1.98
1.06
Cittadella xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
15%
6.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 14.6 | 7.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Modena vs Cittadella Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Modena and 1.06 for Cittadella, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Modena have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 20W 14D 20L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Cittadella's form line: 17W 20D 17L from 54 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.37 PPG, Cittadella on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 26 home games (11W 9D 6L).
On the road, Cittadella have gone 7W 10D 9L from their last 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
Modena (Home) vs Cittadella (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Modena
Blended
Cittadella
Blended
❓ Modena vs Cittadella Form FAQs
What form are Modena and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 14D 20L in their last 54 games (1.37 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 17W 20D 17L in their last 54 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Cittadella away?
Modena's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.62 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Modena or Cittadella been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cittadella in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2022. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 22 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Modena's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Modena
4
Draws
1
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Modena vs Cittadella H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Cittadella?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Modena have won 1, Cittadella have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Cittadella last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2025: Cittadella 0-2 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 50%, Cittadella 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Modena and 35% for Cittadella.
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 27% of games; Cittadella in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Modena vs Cittadella Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Modena and Cittadella matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Modena's recent matches and 54% of Cittadella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Modena and Cittadella matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Modena's recent games and 35% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Cittadella matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Modena's recent matches and 73% of Cittadella's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Cittadella share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 17, as Modena and Cittadella drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 0.92 xG and Cittadella 1.06 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.91 / defence 1.05 against Cittadella attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 30% | Draw 33% | Cittadella 37%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 44%, Cittadella 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Cittadella's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.37 PPG, Cittadella 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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