Feralpisalo 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Feralpisalo vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Leonardo Garilli plays host to Feralpisalo versus Cremonese in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feralpisalo have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feralpisalo have posted 0W 2D 5L at Stadio Leonardo Garilli — 0.29 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game.
Cremonese (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cremonese have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Cremonese are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Feralpisalo half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 50% versus Cremonese 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 56% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 0.74 xG and Cremonese 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.754 / defence 1.476 | Cremonese attack 1.164 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.142 / away 1.133. Feralpisalo's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Feralpisalo games / 16 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 13% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 65%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 7.69 | Draw 4.35 | Cremonese 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Cremonese (65%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Feralpisalo 43% | Cremonese 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 13% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 46% | xG Feralpisalo 0.74 / Cremonese 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.754 / def 1.476 | Cremonese attack 1.164 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.142 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Cremonese kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Cremonese kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Cremonese?
Feralpisalo 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Cremonese part of?
Feralpisalo vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 13% chance of winning, Cremonese a 65% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Feralpisalo and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feralpisalo and Cremonese in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Cremonese (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.75) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.16x) against Feralpisalo's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
13%
7.97
23%
4.43
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.69
1.95
Cremonese xG
7.97
13%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
2%
55.84
31%
3.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 13.2 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.95 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Feralpisalo come into this having played 16 games, going 1W 4D 11L for 0.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (8W 5D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cremonese carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of Feralpisalo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Feralpisalo's home form reads 0W 2D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 2.43 points per game from 7 outings (5W 2D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.81 PPG overall record — Cremonese travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.38 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 1W 4D 11L in their last 16 games (0.44 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 8W 5D 3L in their last 16 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.29 PPG; Cremonese away: 2.43 PPG.
Have Feralpisalo or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feralpisalo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Cremonese in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 2, Cremonese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2024, when Cremonese 0-1 Feralpisalo.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Cremonese?
Feralpisalo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 43%, Cremonese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Feralpisalo) and 71% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cremonese in 43%; Feralpisalo have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 57% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Feralpisalo's matches and 71% of Cremonese's.
Do Feralpisalo and Cremonese tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Feralpisalo defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 0.74 xG and Cremonese 1.95 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cremonese landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.75 / defence 1.48 against Cremonese attack 1.16 / defence 0.86, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 13% | Draw 23% | Cremonese 65%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Feralpisalo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 56%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Feralpisalo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.