Palermo 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palermo vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renzo Barbera plays host to Palermo versus Frosinone in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Palermo have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Renzo Barbera — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renzo Barbera. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Frosinone (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Palermo 0W, Frosinone 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Frosinone winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 42% versus Frosinone 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 38% | Frosinone 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 0.92 xG and Frosinone 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.920 / defence 0.948 | Frosinone attack 1.302 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.011. Frosinone have an above-average attack strength of 1.302 — the away xG of 1.25 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Palermo games / 62 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 27% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 43%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Frosinone 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Frosinone as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 30% | Frosinone 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 27% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Palermo 0.92 / Frosinone 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.920 / def 0.948 | Frosinone attack 1.302 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Frosinone xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Frosinone kick off?
Palermo vs Frosinone kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Frosinone?
Palermo 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Palermo vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Frosinone part of?
Palermo vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 27% chance of winning, Frosinone a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Palermo and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Palermo and Frosinone in?
Palermo (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palermo's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.30x) against Palermo's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 24/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
27%
3.72
30%
3.36
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Palermo xG
Total xG
2.17
1.25
Frosinone xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
8%
12.96
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.3 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Palermo and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Palermo and 1.25 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palermo come into this having played 24 games, going 9W 7D 8L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 2.25 PPG from 24 outings (17W 3D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Palermo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Palermo's home form reads 6W 3D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.83 points per game from 12 outings (7W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Frosinone's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.62 scored and 0.54 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 games (1.42 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 17W 3D 4L in their last 24 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.75 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Palermo or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Frosinone in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Palermo
4
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 1, Frosinone have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Frosinone 1-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 33%, Frosinone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Palermo) and 50% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Frosinone in 33%; Palermo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Palermo's recent games and 50% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Frosinone tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 42% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.92 xG and Frosinone 1.25 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Frosinone attack 1.30 / defence 0.85, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 27% | Draw 30% | Frosinone 43%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 38%, Frosinone 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Frosinone's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.