Sudtirol 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sudtirol's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing at home: 3W 6D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Marco Druso this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Palermo have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Sudtirol, 1.70 for Palermo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sudtirol 1W, Palermo 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sudtirol half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Palermo half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 48% versus Palermo 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 32% | Palermo 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.29 xG and Palermo 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.851 / defence 1.081 | Palermo attack 1.021 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.027. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Sudtirol games / 25 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 29% | Palermo 32%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Palermo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 60% | Palermo 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 39% | Draw 29% | Palermo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sudtirol 1.29 / Palermo 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.851 / def 1.081 | Palermo attack 1.021 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Palermo xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Palermo kick off?
Sudtirol vs Palermo kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Sudtirol vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Palermo part of?
Sudtirol vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 39% chance of winning, Palermo a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sudtirol and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 0 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Sudtirol and Palermo in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Palermo (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.02x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
39%
2.54
29%
3.47
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.42
1.13
Palermo xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
9%
11.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.1 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.13 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 10W 10D 5L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo's form line: 9W 8D 8L from 25 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.60 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.40 for Palermo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (4W 7D 1L).
On the road, Palermo have gone 3W 4D 5L from 12 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.12 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Palermo in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 10W 10D 5L in their last 25 games (1.60 PPG), while Palermo have gone 9W 8D 8L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Palermo away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.58 PPG; Palermo away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Palermo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Palermo go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 21 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sudtirol
1
Draws
5
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Palermo?
From 8 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 2, Palermo have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Palermo 3-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 67%, Palermo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sudtirol) and 42% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Palermo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sudtirol's games and 50% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sudtirol vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sudtirol's recent games and 42% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Palermo tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Palermo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Palermo finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.29 xG and Palermo 1.13 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.85 / defence 1.08 against Palermo attack 1.02 / defence 1.27, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 39% | Draw 29% | Palermo 32%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 32%, Palermo 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Palermo's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.60 PPG, Palermo 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.