Bari 1-1 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bari at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bari and Cagliari meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Bari's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari at Stadio Comunale San Nicola this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cagliari (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cagliari have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Bari, 1.70 for Cagliari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Bari 1W, Cagliari 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Bari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Bari — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Cagliari — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 54% versus Cagliari 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 50% | Cagliari 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.56 xG and Cagliari 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.187 / defence 1.233 | Cagliari attack 0.760 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 0.999. Data: 24 Bari games / 24 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 22%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Cagliari 4.55. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bari 50% | Cagliari 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Bari 1.56 / Cagliari 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.187 / def 1.233 | Cagliari attack 0.760 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.165 / away 0.999 • Poisson stance: Bari (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cagliari xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Cagliari kick off?
Bari vs Cagliari kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Cagliari?
Bari 1 - 1 Cagliari.
Where is Bari vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Cagliari part of?
Bari vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 51% chance of winning, Cagliari a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bari and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Bari and Cagliari in?
Bari (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Cagliari (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bari's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.76x) against Bari's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.75
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Bari xG
Total xG
2.50
0.94
Cagliari xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
5%
21.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.0 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Bari and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Bari and 0.94 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bari's recent record stands at 10W 9D 5L from 24 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 7L across 24 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Bari against 1.46 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bari have managed 4W 4D 3L from 11 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 1W 5D 5L across 11 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bari are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.17 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 10W 9D 5L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 9W 8D 7L in their last 24 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Cagliari away?
Bari's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.45 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bari have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bari
2
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Cagliari?
From 4 meetings on record, Bari have won 1, Cagliari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 11 June 2023, when Bari 0-1 Cagliari.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 54%, Cagliari 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Bari) and 36% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Bari have failed to score in 36% of games; Cagliari in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bari's recent matches and 46% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bari vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Bari's recent games and 36% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Cagliari tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Cagliari share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 25, as Bari and Cagliari drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.56 xG and Cagliari 0.94 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.19 / defence 1.23 against Cagliari attack 0.76 / defence 1.13, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 51% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 22%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 50%, Cagliari 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.62 PPG, Cagliari 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bari (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.