Modena 2-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Modena at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Genoa make the trip to Stadio Alberto Braglia to face Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Modena (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genoa have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Genoa have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Modena, 2.00 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Modena lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 58% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Modena 50% | Genoa 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.34 xG and Genoa 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.114 / defence 1.073 | Genoa attack 0.923 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 0.992. Data: 24 Modena games / 24 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Genoa 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 60% | Genoa 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Genoa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 1.34 / Genoa 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.114 / def 1.073 | Genoa attack 0.923 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.170 / away 0.992 • Poisson stance: Modena (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Genoa xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Genoa kick off?
Modena vs Genoa kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Genoa?
Modena 2 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Modena vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Genoa part of?
Modena vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 44% chance of winning, Genoa a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Genoa?
Record (1 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 0 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Modena and Genoa in?
Modena (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Genoa (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Modena's attack at 1.11x the league average against Genoa's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.92x) against Modena's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
44%
2.27
29%
3.41
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Modena xG
Total xG
2.32
0.98
Genoa xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
7%
14.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Modena and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Modena and 0.98 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Modena's recent record stands at 10W 4D 10L from 24 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 5L across 24 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Modena against 1.79 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Modena have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 6W 1D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.73 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Modena are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.08 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Genoa in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 10W 4D 10L in their last 24 games (1.42 PPG), while Genoa have gone 12W 7D 5L in their last 24 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.64 PPG; Genoa away: 1.73 PPG.
Have Modena or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Genoa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Modena
1
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Genoa?
From 2 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Modena 2-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 54%, Genoa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Modena) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Modena's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Modena's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Genoa tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Genoa in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Genoa share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 25, as Modena and Genoa drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.34 xG and Genoa 0.98 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.11 / defence 1.07 against Genoa attack 0.92 / defence 1.03, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 44% | Draw 29% | Genoa 27%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Genoa 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.42 PPG, Genoa 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.