Pisa 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Venezia make the trip to Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani to face Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Friday 17 February 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Venezia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Pisa against 1.50 for Venezia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for Venezia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Venezia — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 50% versus Venezia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 37% | Venezia 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.46 xG and Venezia 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.123 / defence 1.030 | Venezia attack 0.997 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.011. Data: 62 Pisa games / 24 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 27% | Venezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 3.70. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Pisa 40% | Venezia 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 47% | Draw 27% | Venezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Pisa 1.46 / Venezia 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.123 / def 1.030 | Venezia attack 0.997 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.011 • Poisson stance: Pisa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Venezia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Venezia kick off?
Pisa vs Venezia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Venezia?
Pisa 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Pisa vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Venezia part of?
Pisa vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 47% chance of winning, Venezia a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pisa and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Venezia?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | Venezia 0W.
What form are Pisa and Venezia in?
Pisa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.12) and Venezia's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.00x) against Pisa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
47%
2.14
27%
3.75
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.50
1.04
Venezia xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
16%
6.06
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pisa and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Pisa and 1.04 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 62 outings, Pisa have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 23W 23D 16L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 13W 15D 34L from 62 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Venezia.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pisa have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (14W 10D 6L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 7W 7D 16L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.00 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 63%.
Defensively: Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Venezia in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 23D 16L in their last 62 games (1.48 PPG), while Venezia have gone 13W 15D 34L in their last 62 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Venezia away?
Pisa's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.73 PPG; Venezia away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Pisa or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Venezia in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Venezia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Pisa
2
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Venezia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Pisa 1-2 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 50%, Venezia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Pisa) and 47% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Venezia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pisa's recent matches and 57% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Pisa's recent games and 47% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Venezia tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Venezia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pisa and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 25, as Pisa and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.46 xG and Venezia 1.04 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.12 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 47% | Draw 27% | Venezia 27%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 37%, Venezia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.