Cosenza 1-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cosenza at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Cosenza welcome Cremonese to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 17:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cosenza have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cosenza 1.30 PPG, Cremonese 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cosenza, 2 for Cremonese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Cremonese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cosenza in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Cremonese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 36% | Cremonese 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.46 xG and Cremonese 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.172 / defence 1.018 | Cremonese attack 0.923 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.173. Data: 44 Cosenza games / 6 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 26%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG Cosenza 1.46 / Cremonese 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.172 / def 1.018 | Cremonese attack 0.923 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Cremonese xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Cremonese kick off?
Cosenza vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:15 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Cosenza 1 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Cosenza vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Cremonese part of?
Cosenza vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 43% chance of winning, Cremonese a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cosenza and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cremonese?
Record (2 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Cremonese in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.17x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
43%
2.33
31%
3.23
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.57
1.10
Cremonese xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.10 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 10W 16D 18L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cremonese's form line: 6W 16D 22L from 44 games, 0.77 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.05 PPG, Cremonese on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.52 PPG from 21 outings (8W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 2W 9D 10L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cosenza are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 0.95 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 10W 16D 18L in their last 44 games (1.05 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 6W 16D 22L in their last 44 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Cremonese away?
Cosenza's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.52 PPG; Cremonese away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cosenza's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
5
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Cremonese have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cremonese 3-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 57%, Cremonese 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cosenza) and 52% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Cosenza's games and 67% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cosenza's recent games and 52% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Cremonese tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cremonese defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Cosenza 1-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.46 xG and Cremonese 1.10 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cremonese outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.17 / defence 1.02 against Cremonese attack 0.92 / defence 1.12, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 43% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 26%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Cremonese 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.05 PPG, Cremonese 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.