Spezia 0-0 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Brescia at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi in Serie B (matchday 7). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Spezia — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Spezia's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brescia stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Brescia's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Brescia — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Brescia in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 46% versus Brescia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 51% | Brescia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 0.82 xG and Brescia 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.760 / defence 1.210 | Brescia attack 1.015 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.198. Spezia's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Spezia's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brescia's projected output up. Data: built from Spezia's last 5 games and Brescia's last 41.
Result probabilities: Spezia 18% | Draw 31% | Brescia 50%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 5.41 | Draw 3.18 | Brescia 2.00. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brescia at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Spezia 40% (last 10 home games) | Brescia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 7 | Venue: Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 18% | Draw 31% | Brescia 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Spezia 0.82 / Brescia 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.760 / def 1.210 | Brescia attack 1.015 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Brescia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Brescia xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Spezia vs Brescia FAQs
What time does Spezia vs Brescia kick off?
Spezia vs Brescia kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Brescia?
Spezia 0 - 0 Brescia.
Where is Spezia vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Spezia vs Brescia part of?
Spezia vs Brescia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 18% chance of winning, Brescia a 50% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Spezia and Brescia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Spezia vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.76) and Brescia's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Spezia's last 5 games and Brescia's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
18%
5.41
31%
3.18
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.29
1.47
Brescia xG
5.41
18%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
4%
23.55
22%
4.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.9 | 10.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Spezia vs Brescia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Spezia and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Spezia and 1.47 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia come into this having played 43 games, going 5W 14D 24L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.12 PPG from 43 outings (11W 15D 17L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Spezia's home form reads 3W 8D 10L across their last 21 home games, a 0.81 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 21 away games (4W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.93 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
Spezia (Home) vs Brescia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Spezia
Early Season
Brescia
Early Season
❓ Spezia vs Brescia Form FAQs
What form are Spezia and Brescia in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 5W 14D 24L in their last 43 games (0.67 PPG), while Brescia have gone 11W 15D 17L in their last 43 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.81 PPG; Brescia away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Spezia's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
3
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Spezia vs Brescia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Brescia?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Spezia have won 0, Brescia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Brescia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2025: Spezia 0-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 52%, Brescia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Spezia) and 48% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 43% of games; Brescia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Spezia vs Brescia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Spezia and Brescia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Spezia's recent matches and 48% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Spezia and Brescia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Spezia's recent games and 48% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Brescia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Spezia's recent matches and 71% of Brescia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Spezia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Orogel Stadium-Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 7, as Spezia and Brescia drew 0-0 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 0.82 xG and Brescia 1.47 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spezia fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Brescia landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Brescia attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 5/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 18% | Draw 31% | Brescia 50%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 51%, Brescia 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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