Lecco 1-2 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lecco at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecco face Feralpisalo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Feralpisalo travel to Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi to take on Lecco in Serie B (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 18:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Lecco — last 3 games: 0W 1D 2L, averaging 0.33 points per game. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Across their last 6 games, Feralpisalo have recorded 0W 1D 5L — 0.17 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.17 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Feralpisalo away from home: 0W 0D 3L from their last 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lecco 0.33 PPG, Feralpisalo 0.17 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Lecco in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (last 3 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 33% of Lecco's games and 33% of Feralpisalo's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Lecco 33% | Feralpisalo 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 1.62 xG and Feralpisalo 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.943 / defence 1.502 | Feralpisalo attack 0.589 / defence 1.552. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.173. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.552 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lecco's projected output up. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.589 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Lecco's defence rating of 1.502 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Feralpisalo's projected output up. Data: built from Lecco's last 3 games and Feralpisalo's last 6.
Result probabilities: Lecco 49% | Draw 29% | Feralpisalo 22%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 2.05 | Draw 3.41 | Feralpisalo 4.56. Lecco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecco are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lecco 33% (last 3 games) | Feralpisalo 0% (last 3 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, matchday 7 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 49% | Draw 29% | Feralpisalo 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Lecco 1.62 / Feralpisalo 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.943 / def 1.502 | Feralpisalo attack 0.589 / def 1.552 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.173 • Poisson stance: Lecco (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Feralpisalo xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecco vs Feralpisalo FAQs
What time does Lecco vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Lecco vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Feralpisalo?
Lecco 1 - 2 Feralpisalo.
Where is Lecco vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Feralpisalo part of?
Lecco vs Feralpisalo is a Serie B fixture (matchday 7) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 49% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lecco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lecco and Feralpisalo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lecco vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lecco's attack at 0.94x the league average against Feralpisalo's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Feralpisalo's attack versus Lecco's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lecco's last 3 games and Feralpisalo's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecco Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.41
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.66
1.04
Feralpisalo xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
4%
23.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.8 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecco vs Feralpisalo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Lecco and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Lecco and 1.04 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Feralpisalo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lecco come into this having played 3 games, going 0W 1D 2L for 0.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D.
On the other side, Feralpisalo sit at 0.33 PPG from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lecco on 0.33 PPG, Feralpisalo on 0.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Lecco are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.33 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 3 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Early Season
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Lecco (Home) vs Feralpisalo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecco
Early Season
Feralpisalo
Early Season
❓ Lecco vs Feralpisalo Form FAQs
What form are Lecco and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
Have Lecco or Feralpisalo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Feralpisalo in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecco
0
Draws
2
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecco vs Feralpisalo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Feralpisalo?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecco have won 0, Feralpisalo have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Feralpisalo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Feralpisalo 5-1 Lecco.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Feralpisalo?
Feralpisalo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Lecco 33% BTTS, Feralpisalo 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Lecco and 33% for Feralpisalo.
On the defensive side: Lecco keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Lecco have failed to score in 67% of games; Feralpisalo in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecco vs Feralpisalo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecco and Feralpisalo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Lecco's recent matches and 33% of Feralpisalo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecco and Feralpisalo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Lecco's recent games and 33% of Feralpisalo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecco and Feralpisalo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lecco's recent matches and 67% of Feralpisalo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Feralpisalo defy the odds to beat Lecco 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Lecco 1-2 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 1.62 xG and Feralpisalo 1.04 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Feralpisalo outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.94 / defence 1.50 against Feralpisalo attack 0.59 / defence 1.55, drawn from 3/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 49% | Draw 29% | Feralpisalo 22%, with Lecco to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Feralpisalo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 33%, Feralpisalo 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecco 0.33 PPG, Feralpisalo 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feralpisalo win broke the near-deadlock. Feralpisalo scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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