Cremonese 2-2 Ascoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cremonese take on Ascoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 6 as Cremonese welcome Ascoli to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cremonese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Ascoli have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cremonese) versus 0.80 (Ascoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cremonese, 1 for Ascoli and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Ascoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Ascoli trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 54% versus Ascoli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Ascoli 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.95 xG and Ascoli 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.654 / defence 0.974 | Ascoli attack 0.762 / defence 1.259. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.133. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.654 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ascoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.259 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Cremonese games / 43 Ascoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 35% | Draw 36% | Ascoli 29%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Ascoli 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.79 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Ascoli 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Ascoli | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 35% | Draw 36% | Ascoli 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Cremonese 0.95 / Ascoli 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.654 / def 0.974 | Ascoli attack 0.762 / def 1.259 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Ascoli xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Ascoli kick off?
Cremonese vs Ascoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Cremonese 2 - 2 Ascoli.
Where is Cremonese vs Ascoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Ascoli part of?
Cremonese vs Ascoli is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 35% chance of winning, Ascoli a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Cremonese and Ascoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Ascoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ascoli?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 0 | Ascoli 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Ascoli in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Ascoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.65) and Ascoli's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ascoli's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.84
36%
2.78
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.79
0.84
Ascoli xG
2.84
35%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.6 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 13.3 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Ascoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.84 for Ascoli, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Ascoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 6W 15D 22L from 43 games, a 0.77 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ascoli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 19L across 43 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 0.77 PPG, Ascoli on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 4W 6D 12L from 22 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ascoli's away record stands at 6W 5D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Ascoli are on 1.02 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Ascoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Ascoli in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 6W 15D 22L in their last 43 games (0.77 PPG), while Ascoli have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Ascoli away?
Ascoli's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 0.82 PPG; Ascoli away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2021, when Cremonese won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Ascoli specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Ascoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ascoli?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Ascoli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Ascoli last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2024, when Ascoli 0-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 41%, Ascoli 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Cremonese) and 36% (Ascoli).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 46% of games; Ascoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Ascoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Ascoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Cremonese's recent matches and 46% of Ascoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Ascoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Cremonese's recent games and 36% of Ascoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Ascoli tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ascoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Ascoli share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Ascoli finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.95 xG and Ascoli 0.84 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ascoli outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.65 / defence 0.97 against Ascoli attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 5/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 35% | Draw 36% | Ascoli 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 44%, Ascoli 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Ascoli's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 0.77 PPG, Ascoli 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. Ascoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.