Reggiana 0-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 7 as Reggiana welcome Pisa to MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 September 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Reggiana have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D L D D W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Reggiana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pisa stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Reggiana at 1.00 PPG versus Pisa's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Reggiana in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pisa in-play tendencies (6 games): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 67% versus Pisa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 67% | Pisa 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 1.04 xG and Pisa 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 1.024 / defence 1.395 | Pisa attack 0.900 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.096 / away 1.198. Data: 6 Reggiana games / 43 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 31% | Pisa 46%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Pisa 2.17. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Reggiana 67% | Pisa 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 24% | Draw 31% | Pisa 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Reggiana 1.04 / Pisa 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 1.024 / def 1.395 | Pisa attack 0.900 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.096 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Pisa (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Pisa xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Pisa kick off?
Reggiana vs Pisa kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Pisa?
Reggiana 0 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Reggiana vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Pisa part of?
Reggiana vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 24% chance of winning, Pisa a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Reggiana and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Reggiana and Pisa in?
Reggiana (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-W. Pisa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Reggiana's attack at 1.02x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
24%
4.23
31%
3.25
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.54
1.50
Pisa xG
4.23
24%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
16%
6.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 11.9 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.50 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Reggiana's recent record stands at 1W 3D 2L from 6 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Reggiana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 3L across 6 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.00 PPG, Pisa on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Reggiana are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.00 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Pisa in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 2W 1D 3L in their last 6 (1.17 PPG).
Have Reggiana or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggiana have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Pisa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Reggiana and Pisa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Pisa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Reggiana's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Reggiana
2
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Pisa?
From 4 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Reggiana 0-2 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Reggiana and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 67%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Reggiana) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 33%; Reggiana have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Reggiana's games and 50% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Reggiana's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Reggiana and Pisa tend to score early?
Reggiana have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Pisa in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Reggiana's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 7, as Reggiana and Pisa drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 1.04 xG and Pisa 1.50 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Reggiana fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Pisa landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 1.02 / defence 1.40 against Pisa attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 6/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 24% | Draw 31% | Pisa 46%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 67%, Pisa 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pisa's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.00 PPG, Pisa 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Reggiana managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.