Monza 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Monza at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Monza face Venezia.

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Analysis

Venezia make the trip to Brianteo to face Monza in Serie B (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Saturday 21 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.

Form

Monza (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Monza's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Venezia's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Venezia's form when playing away from home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Monza, 2.30 for Venezia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Monza, 2 for Venezia and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Monza 0–2 Venezia — a Venezia win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Monza half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 51% versus Venezia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 49% | Venezia 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Monza surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Venezia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.45 xG and Venezia 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 1.243 / defence 0.837 | Venezia attack 1.339 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.094. Venezia have an above-average attack rating of 1.339, which lifts their away xG to 1.23. Data: built from Monza's last 31 games and Venezia's last 31.

Result probabilities: Monza 41% | Draw 28% | Venezia 31%. Fair-value odds: Monza 2.44 | Draw 3.53 | Venezia 3.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Monza's last 10 home games and Venezia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monza 50% (last 10 home games) | Venezia 70% (last 10 away games).

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