Ternana 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ternana at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ternana vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Cosenza travel to Stadio Libero Liberati to take on Ternana. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ternana stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ternana have posted 6W 1D 3L at Stadio Libero Liberati — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Libero Liberati. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cosenza — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cosenza have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ternana 1.60 PPG, Cosenza 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ternana, 1 for Cosenza and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Ternana winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ternana trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Cosenza trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ternana 63% versus Cosenza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ternana 54% | Cosenza 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ternana 1.23 xG and Cosenza 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ternana attack 1.051 / defence 0.947 | Cosenza attack 0.845 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.061. Data: 41 Ternana games / 41 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ternana 45% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 26%. Fair-value odds: Ternana 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Cosenza 3.85. Ternana hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ternana at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ternana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ternana 30% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ternana vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Libero Liberati • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ternana 45% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Ternana 1.23 / Cosenza 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Ternana attack 1.051 / def 0.947 | Cosenza attack 0.845 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Ternana (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Ternana xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Cosenza xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ternana vs Cosenza kick off?
Ternana vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What was the final score in Ternana vs Cosenza?
Ternana 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Ternana vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Libero Liberati.
What competition is Ternana vs Cosenza part of?
Ternana vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Ternana a 45% chance of winning, Cosenza a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ternana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ternana and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Ternana vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Ternana 1W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Ternana and Cosenza in?
Ternana (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ternana's attack rating (1.05) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Ternana's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ternana Win
45%
2.22
29%
3.40
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Ternana xG
Total xG
2.08
0.85
Cosenza xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.47
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
19%
5.20
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 10.6 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ternana vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ternana and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Ternana and 0.85 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ternana vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Ternana have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 16W 9D 16L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Ternana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cosenza's form line: 11W 11D 19L from 41 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ternana on 1.39 PPG, Cosenza on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ternana have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (10W 2D 8L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 8D 11L from 20 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ternana come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ternana are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.98 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ternana have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ternana
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ternana and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Ternana have gone 16W 9D 16L in their last 41 games (1.39 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 11W 11D 19L in their last 41 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ternana at home or Cosenza away?
Ternana's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ternana at home: 1.60 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ternana and Cosenza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ternana have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ternana's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ternana
2
Draws
1
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ternana and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Ternana have won 3, Cosenza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ternana and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Ternana 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Ternana and Cosenza?
Ternana have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ternana 40%, Cosenza 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Ternana) and 35% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Ternana keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Cosenza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ternana home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ternana play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ternana's recent matches and 55% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ternana vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Ternana's recent games and 35% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ternana and Cosenza tend to score early?
Ternana have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ternana and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana and Cosenza finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Libero Liberati, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ternana 1.23 xG and Cosenza 0.85 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ternana attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Cosenza attack 0.84 / defence 0.89, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ternana 45% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 26%, with Ternana to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ternana 54%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ternana's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ternana 1.39 PPG, Cosenza 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.