Modena 0-0 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Modena (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Modena face Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sudtirol — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Modena carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sudtirol in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Modena, 1 for Sudtirol and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sudtirol trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 60% and Sudtirol 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Sudtirol 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.63 xG and Sudtirol 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.151 / defence 0.826 | Sudtirol attack 0.893 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.113. Data: 50 Modena games / 50 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 54% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 16%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 6.25. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Modena 60% | Sudtirol 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 54% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Modena 1.63 / Sudtirol 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.151 / def 0.826 | Sudtirol attack 0.893 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Modena (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Sudtirol xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Sudtirol kick off?
Modena vs Sudtirol kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Sudtirol?
Modena 0 - 0 Sudtirol.
Where is Modena vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Sudtirol part of?
Modena vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 54% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 16% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Modena and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sudtirol?
Record (6 meetings): Modena 3W | Draws 2 | Sudtirol 1W.
What form are Modena and Sudtirol in?
Modena (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Modena's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
54%
1.85
30%
3.32
16%
6.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Modena xG
Total xG
2.46
0.82
Sudtirol xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
6.26
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
3%
32.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Modena and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Modena and 0.82 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Modena come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 19D 14L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.16 PPG from 50 outings (14W 16D 20L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.40 PPG, Sudtirol on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Modena's home form reads 11W 9D 5L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.28 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Sudtirol in 62%.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 17W 19D 14L in their last 50 games (1.40 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 14W 16D 20L in their last 50 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Sudtirol away?
Modena's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.68 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Modena's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Modena
4
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Sudtirol?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Sudtirol have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Sudtirol 1-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Sudtirol?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 64%, Sudtirol 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Modena) and 52% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Sudtirol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Modena's games and 52% of Sudtirol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Modena's recent games and 52% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Modena's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 13, as Modena and Sudtirol drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.63 xG and Sudtirol 0.82 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Modena fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Sudtirol landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.15 / defence 0.83 against Sudtirol attack 0.89 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 54% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 16%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 50%, Sudtirol 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sudtirol's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.40 PPG, Sudtirol 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Sudtirol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.