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Poisson model favours Modena (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Modena face Sudtirol.

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Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Sudtirol travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Sudtirol — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Sudtirol away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Modena carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Modena register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sudtirol in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Modena, 1 for Sudtirol and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Data

Modena trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Sudtirol trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 60% and Sudtirol 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 50% | Sudtirol 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.63 xG and Sudtirol 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.151 / defence 0.826 | Sudtirol attack 0.893 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.113. Data: 50 Modena games / 50 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Modena 54% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 16%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.85 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 6.25. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Modena 60% | Sudtirol 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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