🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Carrarese at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Reggiana travel to Stadio dei Marmi to take on Carrarese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Carrarese — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Carrarese's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Reggiana away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 1.10 PPG, Reggiana 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carrarese, 0 for Reggiana and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Carrarese in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Reggiana in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Reggiana 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Reggiana 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.97 xG and Reggiana 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.051 / defence 1.148 | Reggiana attack 1.160 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.079. Reggiana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Carrarese games / 50 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Carrarese 48% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 26%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Reggiana 3.85. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 50% | Reggiana 90% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights