Reggina 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Reggina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggina vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggina host Modena at Stadio Oreste Granillo in Serie B, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 February 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggina — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggina at Stadio Oreste Granillo this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Modena — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Reggina have won 0, Modena 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Modena winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Reggina in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Modena in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggina 40% versus Modena 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggina 56% | Modena 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggina 1.45 xG and Modena 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggina attack 1.007 / defence 1.166 | Modena attack 1.051 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.027. Modena bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Reggina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Reggina games / 25 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggina 41% | Draw 27% | Modena 32%. Fair-value odds: Reggina 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Modena 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Reggina are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Modena (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reggina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Reggina 40% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggina vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Oreste Granillo • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggina 41% | Draw 27% | Modena 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Reggina 1.45 / Modena 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Reggina attack 1.007 / def 1.166 | Modena attack 1.051 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.188 / away 1.027 • Poisson stance: Reggina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Reggina xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Modena xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggina vs Modena kick off?
Reggina vs Modena kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What was the final score in Reggina vs Modena?
Reggina 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Reggina vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Oreste Granillo.
What competition is Reggina vs Modena part of?
Reggina vs Modena is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggina vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Reggina a 41% chance of winning, Modena a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggina vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Reggina and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Reggina vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Reggina 0W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Reggina and Modena in?
Reggina (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggina's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Reggina's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
41%
2.45
27%
3.70
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Reggina xG
Total xG
2.70
1.26
Modena xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
24%
4.24
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggina vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Reggina and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Reggina and 1.26 for Modena, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggina vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggina come into this having played 25 games, going 12W 3D 10L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.40 PPG from 25 outings (10W 5D 10L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggina on 1.56 PPG, Modena on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reggina's home form reads 6W 2D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.33 points per game from 12 outings (5W 1D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reggina are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.48 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 60%.
Defensively: Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggina
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggina and Modena in coming into this match?
Reggina have gone 12W 3D 10L in their last 25 games (1.56 PPG), while Modena have gone 10W 5D 10L in their last 25 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggina at home or Modena away?
Reggina's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggina at home: 1.67 PPG; Modena away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Reggina or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Reggina have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Modena in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Reggina
0
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggina and Modena?
From 2 meetings on record, Reggina have won 1, Modena have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggina and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Reggina 2-1 Modena.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggina 33%, Modena 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Reggina and 58% for Modena. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Reggina keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Reggina have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggina home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggina play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Reggina's recent matches and 58% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Reggina vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Reggina's matches and 58% of Modena's.
Do Reggina and Modena tend to score early?
Reggina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Modena in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Reggina edge out Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggina beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio Oreste Granillo, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggina 1.45 xG and Modena 1.26 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggina attack 1.01 / defence 1.17 against Modena attack 1.05 / defence 1.21, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggina 41% | Draw 27% | Modena 32%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggina 56%, Modena 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggina's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggina 1.56 PPG, Modena 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.