Mantova 1-1 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mantova face Carrarese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carrarese make the trip to Stadio Danilo Martelli to face Mantova in Serie B (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Mantova (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mantova's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Carrarese have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Carrarese's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Mantova's last 10 home games and Carrarese's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Mantova's games and 70% of Carrarese's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Mantova edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 27 Dec 2025, ended Mantova 0–0 Carrarese — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Mantova — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 56% versus Carrarese 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Carrarese 47%). Note also that Carrarese surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Mantova recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.86 xG and Carrarese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.084 / defence 1.304 | Carrarese attack 0.882 / defence 1.369. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.106. Carrarese's defence rating of 1.369 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Mantova's projected output up. Mantova's defence rating of 1.304 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Carrarese's projected output up. Data: built from Mantova's last 64 games and Carrarese's last 64.
Result probabilities: Mantova 50% | Draw 24% | Carrarese 25%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.99 | Draw 4.13 | Carrarese 3.93. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.86 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Mantova's last 10 home games and Carrarese's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mantova 70% (last 10 home games) | Carrarese 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 50% | Draw 24% | Carrarese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Mantova 1.86 / Carrarese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.084 / def 1.304 | Carrarese attack 0.882 / def 1.369 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.106 • Poisson stance: Mantova (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Carrarese xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Carrarese FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Carrarese kick off?
Mantova vs Carrarese kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Carrarese?
Mantova 1 - 1 Carrarese.
Where is Mantova vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Carrarese part of?
Mantova vs Carrarese is a Serie B fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 50% chance of winning, Carrarese a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mantova and Carrarese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mantova vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Mantova's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.88x) against Mantova's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 64 games and Carrarese's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
50%
1.99
24%
4.13
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Mantova xG
Total xG
3.13
1.27
Carrarese xG
1.99
50%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
16%
6.40
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
4%
25.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.3 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Carrarese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Mantova and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Mantova and 1.27 for Carrarese, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mantova come into this having played 64 games, going 17W 19D 28L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Carrarese sit at 1.17 PPG from 64 outings (18W 21D 25L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Mantova against 1.17 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mantova's home form reads 13W 9D 10L across their last 32 home games, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Carrarese have taken 0.62 points per game from their last 32 away games (3W 11D 18L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mantova are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.09 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
Mantova (Home) vs Carrarese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Mantova vs Carrarese Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 17W 19D 28L in their last 64 games (1.09 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 18W 21D 25L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Carrarese away?
Mantova's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.50 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Mantova or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Carrarese in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Carrarese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Mantova
3
Draws
0
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Carrarese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Carrarese?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 2, Carrarese have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Carrarese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Carrarese 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Carrarese?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 56%, Carrarese 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mantova) and 53% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Carrarese in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Carrarese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Carrarese matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mantova's games and 62% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mantova and Carrarese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mantova's recent games and 53% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Carrarese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Mantova's recent matches and 75% of Carrarese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova and Carrarese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 27, as Mantova and Carrarese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.86 xG and Carrarese 1.27 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Mantova fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.08 / defence 1.30 against Carrarese attack 0.88 / defence 1.37, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 50% | Draw 24% | Carrarese 25%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Carrarese 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Carrarese's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.09 PPG, Carrarese 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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