Mantova 0-1 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Mantova face Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Mantova welcome Bari to Stadio Danilo Martelli in Serie B (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Mantova — last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Mantova's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bari stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Bari away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Mantova) versus 1.00 (Bari). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Mantova have won 0, Bari 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2024, ended Mantova 0–2 Bari — a Bari win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bari in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 58% versus Bari 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 50% | Bari 31%). Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Mantova recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.01 xG and Bari 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.839 / defence 1.300 | Bari attack 0.814 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.078. Mantova's defence rating of 1.300 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Data: built from Mantova's last 26 games and Bari's last 64.
Result probabilities: Mantova 30% | Draw 34% | Bari 36%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 3.37 | Draw 2.94 | Bari 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Mantova's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mantova 40% (last 10 home games) | Bari 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 27 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 22 February 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 30% | Draw 34% | Bari 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Mantova 1.01 / Bari 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.839 / def 1.300 | Bari attack 0.814 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Bari (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bari xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mantova vs Bari FAQs
What time does Mantova vs Bari kick off?
Mantova vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Bari?
Mantova 0 - 1 Bari.
Where is Mantova vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Bari part of?
Mantova vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 27) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 30% chance of winning, Bari a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mantova and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Mantova vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (0.84) and Bari's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Mantova's last 26 games and Bari's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
30%
3.37
34%
2.94
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.15
1.14
Bari xG
3.37
30%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
10.53
13%
7.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mantova vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mantova and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Mantova and 1.14 for Bari, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova's recent record stands at 6W 11D 9L from 26 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-D in the last five.
Bari, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 6L across 26 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.12 PPG, Bari on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 5W 4D 3L from their last 12 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bari's away record stands at 2W 6D 4L across their last 12 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Bari
Blended
Mantova (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mantova
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Mantova vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Mantova and Bari in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 6W 11D 9L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Bari have gone 7W 13D 6L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Bari away?
Mantova's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.58 PPG; Bari away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mantova or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Bari in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Mantova's record when hosting Bari specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
3
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Mantova vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Bari?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Mantova have won 1, Bari have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Mantova 2-1 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Bari?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 42%, Bari 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Mantova and 25% for Bari.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bari in 42%; Mantova have failed to score in 33% of games; Bari in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mantova vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mantova and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Mantova's recent matches and 42% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Mantova and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Mantova's recent games and 25% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Mantova's recent matches and 67% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bari edge out Mantova 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Mantova 0-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.01 xG and Bari 1.14 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mantova fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.84 / defence 1.30 against Bari attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 30% | Draw 34% | Bari 36%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 50%, Bari 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bari's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Bari 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bari win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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