Lecco 1-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lecco face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi plays host to Lecco versus Pisa in Serie B (matchday 21). Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Current Form
Lecco's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Lecco have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 home games (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Pisa have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pisa have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Lecco, 0 for Pisa and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 24 Oct 2023, ended Lecco 2–1 Pisa — a Lecco win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Lecco — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lecco 55% versus Pisa 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 55% | Pisa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 1.18 xG and Pisa 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.914 / defence 1.265 | Pisa attack 0.843 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.183. Lecco's defence rating of 1.265 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Pisa's projected output up. Data: built from Lecco's last 20 games and Pisa's last 58.
Result probabilities: Lecco 33% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 3.01 | Draw 3.37 | Pisa 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lecco 56% (last 9 home games) | Pisa 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 33% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Lecco 1.18 / Pisa 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.914 / def 1.265 | Pisa attack 0.843 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Pisa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Pisa xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lecco vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Lecco vs Pisa kick off?
Lecco vs Pisa kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Pisa?
Lecco 1 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Lecco vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Pisa part of?
Lecco vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 33% chance of winning, Pisa a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lecco and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lecco vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lecco's attack rating (0.91) and Pisa's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.84x) against Lecco's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from Lecco's last 20 games and Pisa's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
33%
3.01
30%
3.37
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.44
1.26
Pisa xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
11%
8.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lecco vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Lecco and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lecco and 1.26 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lecco come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 5D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Pisa sit at 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (5W 8D 7L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Lecco against 1.15 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Lecco's home form reads 3W 1D 5L across their last 9 home games, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Pisa have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 9 away games (2W 3D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Lecco are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.00 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 60%.
Last 20 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Blended
Pisa
Blended
Lecco (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lecco
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Lecco vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Lecco and Pisa in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Pisa have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Pisa away?
Lecco's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 1.11 PPG; Pisa away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Lecco or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lecco have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Pisa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Lecco and Pisa, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Lecco
0
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Lecco vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Pisa?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Lecco have won 1, Pisa have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 January 2024: Lecco 1-3 Pisa.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lecco see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 56%, Pisa 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lecco) and 33% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 33%; Lecco have failed to score in 33% of games; Pisa in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lecco vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lecco and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lecco's recent matches and 44% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lecco and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Lecco's recent games and 33% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Pisa cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Lecco 1-3 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 1.18 xG and Pisa 1.26 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against Pisa attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 33% | Draw 30% | Pisa 37%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 55%, Pisa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lecco 1.00 PPG, Pisa 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pisa win broke the near-deadlock. Lecco (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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