Cosenza 4-2 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cosenza and Venezia meet at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cosenza have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Venezia's overall Serie B record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Venezia arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Venezia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 48% versus Venezia 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 37% | Venezia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.01 xG and Venezia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.932 / defence 0.990 | Venezia attack 1.043 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.183. Data: 58 Cosenza games / 58 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 29% | Draw 31% | Venezia 40%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Venezia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Venezia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 60% | Venezia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 29% | Draw 31% | Venezia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Cosenza 1.01 / Venezia 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.932 / def 0.990 | Venezia attack 1.043 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Venezia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Venezia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Venezia kick off?
Cosenza vs Venezia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Venezia?
Cosenza 4 - 2 Venezia.
Where is Cosenza vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Venezia part of?
Cosenza vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 29% chance of winning, Venezia a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cosenza and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Venezia?
Record (3 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 2 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Venezia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (1.04x) against Cosenza's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.22
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.23
1.22
Venezia xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.22 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 14W 20D 25L record — L-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia's form line: 24W 15D 20L from 59 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (10W 10D 9L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 10W 8D 11L from 29 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.49 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 63%.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 14W 20D 25L in their last 59 games (1.05 PPG), while Venezia have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Venezia away?
Cosenza's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.38 PPG; Venezia away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cosenza
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Cosenza 4-2 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 55%, Venezia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cosenza) and 45% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Venezia in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cosenza's recent matches and 52% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cosenza's recent games and 45% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Venezia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Venezia in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Venezia 4-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.01 xG and Venezia 1.22 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.93 / defence 0.99 against Venezia attack 1.04 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 29% | Draw 31% | Venezia 40%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 37%, Venezia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Cosenza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.