Mantova 2-0 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Danilo Martelli plays host to Mantova versus Juve Stabia in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Mantova at Stadio Danilo Martelli this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Juve Stabia's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Mantova, 1.40 for Juve Stabia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Mantova 0W, Juve Stabia 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mantova — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 58% versus Juve Stabia 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mantova 52% | Juve Stabia 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.016 / defence 1.258 | Juve Stabia attack 0.829 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.142. Data: 66 Mantova games / 66 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 32%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Juve Stabia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mantova if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 70% | Juve Stabia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 39% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Mantova 1.33 / Juve Stabia 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.016 / def 1.258 | Juve Stabia attack 0.829 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Mantova (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Juve Stabia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Mantova vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Mantova 2 - 0 Juve Stabia.
Where is Mantova vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Juve Stabia part of?
Mantova vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 39% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Mantova and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Juve Stabia?
Record (3 meetings): Mantova 0W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Mantova and Juve Stabia in?
Mantova (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mantova's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.83x) against Mantova's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.50
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Mantova xG
Total xG
2.52
1.19
Juve Stabia xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.43
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Mantova and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Mantova and 1.19 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mantova's recent record stands at 17W 20D 29L from 66 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 23W 25D 18L across 66 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Mantova against 1.42 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mantova have managed 12W 10D 10L from 32 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 6W 14D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mantova are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.11 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Current Season
Juve Stabia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 17W 20D 29L in their last 66 games (1.08 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 23W 25D 18L in their last 66 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Juve Stabia away?
Mantova's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.44 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Mantova or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mantova have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mantova have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mantova
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Mantova 2-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 56%, Juve Stabia 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Mantova) and 50% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Mantova's games and 56% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Mantova's recent games and 50% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Juve Stabia 2-0 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.33 xG and Juve Stabia 1.19 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Juve Stabia landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 1.02 / defence 1.26 against Juve Stabia attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 39% | Draw 29% | Juve Stabia 32%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 52%, Juve Stabia 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.08 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.