Cremonese 1-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Cremonese (46%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Cremonese face Ternana.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ternana make the trip to Stadio Giovanni Zini to face Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 33). The match kicks off on Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ternana (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Ternana have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Cremonese. A 0.60 PPG lead over Ternana (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Cremonese have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Ternana managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2023, ended Cremonese 1–0 Ternana — a Cremonese win.
The head-to-head data gives Cremonese an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 49% versus Ternana 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 47% | Ternana 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.52 xG and Ternana 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.924 / defence 0.866 | Ternana attack 0.980 / defence 1.306. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.244. Ternana's defence rating of 1.306 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Data: built from Cremonese's last 32 games and Ternana's last 70.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.16 | Draw 3.44 | Ternana 4.04. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cremonese 30% (last 10 home games) | Ternana 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Ternana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cremonese 1.52 / Ternana 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.924 / def 0.866 | Ternana attack 0.980 / def 1.306 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Ternana xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Ternana FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Ternana kick off?
Cremonese vs Ternana kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Ternana?
Cremonese 1 - 2 Ternana.
Where is Cremonese vs Ternana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Ternana part of?
Cremonese vs Ternana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 46% chance of winning, Ternana a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cremonese and Ternana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cremonese vs Ternana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.92x the league average against Ternana's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ternana's attack (0.98x) against Cremonese's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 32 games and Ternana's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.44
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.57
1.05
Ternana xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
5%
18.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Ternana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Ternana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Ternana expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.05 for Ternana, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Ternana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese's recent record stands at 22W 20D 28L from 70 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Ternana, meanwhile, have gone 19W 19D 32L across 70 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Cremonese against 1.09 for Ternana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 9D 14L from their last 34 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ternana's away record stands at 7W 7D 20L across their last 34 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Ternana are on 1.04 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
Cremonese (Home) vs Ternana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Current Season
Ternana
Current Season
❓ Cremonese vs Ternana Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Ternana in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 20D 28L in their last 70 games (1.23 PPG), while Ternana have gone 19W 19D 32L in their last 70 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Ternana away?
Cremonese's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.24 PPG; Ternana away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Cremonese and Ternana, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ternana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Cremonese
0
Draws
1
Ternana
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Ternana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Ternana?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 3, Ternana have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Ternana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Cremonese 1-2 Ternana.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Ternana?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Ternana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 38%, Ternana 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cremonese) and 65% (Ternana).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese have failed to score in 35% of games; Ternana in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Ternana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Ternana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Ternana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cremonese's recent matches and 62% of Ternana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Ternana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cremonese's recent games and 65% of Ternana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Ternana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Cremonese's recent matches and 74% of Ternana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ternana defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ternana beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.52 xG and Ternana 1.05 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ternana outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.92 / defence 0.87 against Ternana attack 0.98 / defence 1.31, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 46% | Draw 29% | Ternana 25%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Ternana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 47%, Ternana 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Ternana's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.23 PPG, Ternana 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ternana win broke the near-deadlock. Ternana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 33
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →