Brescia 0-0 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Brescia at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Ternana encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Ternana in Serie B, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 13:00 UTC.

Current Form

Brescia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Brescia are significantly better at Stadio Mario Rigamonti than their overall form suggests.

Ternana (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Ternana have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Brescia, 1.50 for Ternana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record favours Brescia, who have won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Ternana — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Brescia winning.

The historical record gives Brescia a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading Data

Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Ternana goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Ternana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 32% | Ternana 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.81 xG and Ternana 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.144 / defence 0.903 | Ternana attack 1.058 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.215. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Brescia games / 71 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Brescia 51% | Draw 26% | Ternana 23%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Ternana 4.35. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 50% | Ternana 70% BTTS from recent games.

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