Cremonese 2-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Cremonese at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cremonese face Pisa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Pisa travel to Stadio Giovanni Zini to take on Cremonese in Serie B (matchday 36). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cremonese stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cremonese have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Cremonese are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cremonese 1.40 PPG, Pisa 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Pisa and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Cremonese 0–0 Pisa — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Pisa trading profile (last 73 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 49% versus Pisa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 48% | Pisa 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cremonese surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Pisa have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.33 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.910 / defence 0.971 | Pisa attack 1.009 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.181. Pisa's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cremonese's projected output up. Data: built from Cremonese's last 35 games and Pisa's last 73.
Result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 32% | Pisa 30%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Pisa 3.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cremonese 40% (last 10 home games) | Pisa 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, matchday 36 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 38% | Draw 32% | Pisa 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Cremonese 1.33 / Pisa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.910 / def 0.971 | Pisa attack 1.009 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Pisa xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa FAQs
What time does Cremonese vs Pisa kick off?
Cremonese vs Pisa kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Cremonese 2 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Cremonese vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Pisa part of?
Cremonese vs Pisa is a Serie B fixture (matchday 36) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 38% chance of winning, Pisa a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cremonese and Pisa will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cremonese vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.91x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cremonese's last 35 games and Pisa's last 73 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.12
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.49
1.16
Pisa xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
8%
12.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.16 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cremonese's recent record stands at 22W 21D 30L from 73 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 22W 26D 25L across 73 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-L-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.19 PPG, Pisa on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 9D 16L from their last 36 home games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 9W 14D 13L across their last 36 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cremonese are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.30 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 62%.
Last 73 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
Cremonese (Home) vs Pisa (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cremonese
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Form FAQs
What form are Cremonese and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 22W 21D 30L in their last 73 games (1.19 PPG), while Pisa have gone 22W 26D 25L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Pisa away?
Cremonese's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.17 PPG; Pisa away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Serie B, Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 13 Mar 2022, when Pisa won Pisa 3-0 Cremonese.
Cremonese's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
5
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Pisa?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cremonese have won 2, Pisa have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Pisa last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Pisa 3-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 42%, Pisa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cremonese) and 39% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pisa in 33%; Cremonese have failed to score in 33% of games; Pisa in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cremonese vs Pisa Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cremonese and Pisa matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cremonese's recent matches and 56% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cremonese and Pisa matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cremonese's recent games and 39% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Pisa matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Cremonese's recent matches and 56% of Pisa's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Pisa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Pisa 2-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.33 xG and Pisa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Pisa attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 38% | Draw 32% | Pisa 30%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 48%, Pisa 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.19 PPG, Pisa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cremonese win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie B fixtures — matchday 36
All Serie B fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →