Parma 1-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Parma at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Cremonese at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Parma stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cremonese — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cremonese away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 1.90 PPG versus Cremonese's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Parma have won 1, Cremonese 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2023, ended 2–1 with Parma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Cremonese trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 50% versus Cremonese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 45% | Cremonese 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.42 xG and Cremonese 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 1.280 / defence 0.908 | Cremonese attack 0.821 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.176. Parma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 74 Parma games / 36 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 21%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Cremonese 4.76. Parma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Parma as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Parma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 70% | Cremonese 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 48% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Parma 1.42 / Cremonese 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 1.280 / def 0.908 | Cremonese attack 0.821 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Parma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Parma xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cremonese xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Cremonese kick off?
Parma vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Cremonese?
Parma 1 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Parma vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Cremonese part of?
Parma vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 48% chance of winning, Cremonese a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Parma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Parma and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cremonese?
Record (3 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 0 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Parma and Cremonese in?
Parma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (1.28) and Cremonese's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Parma Win
48%
2.09
31%
3.26
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Parma xG
Total xG
2.30
0.88
Cremonese xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
20%
5.01
5%
19.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Parma and 0.88 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 74 outings, Parma have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 38W 20D 16L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Cremonese's form line: 23W 21D 30L from 74 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Parma are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 2.00 PPG from 37 outings (22W 8D 7L).
On the road, Cremonese have gone 11W 12D 14L from 37 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 0.99 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.11 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 38W 20D 16L in their last 74 games (1.81 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 23W 21D 30L in their last 74 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Cremonese away?
Parma's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 2.00 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Parma or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cremonese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Cremonese runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
3
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Cremonese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Parma 0-2 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cremonese see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 49%, Cremonese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Parma) and 54% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Parma keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cremonese in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Parma's recent matches and 57% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Parma's recent games and 54% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Cremonese tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Cremonese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 37, as Parma and Cremonese drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.42 xG and Cremonese 0.88 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against Cremonese attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 48% | Draw 31% | Cremonese 21%, with Parma to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 45%, Cremonese 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.