Feralpisalo 2-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Feralpisalo vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Leonardo Garilli plays host to Feralpisalo versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Feralpisalo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Feralpisalo have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Leonardo Garilli — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Brescia have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Brescia have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Feralpisalo against 1.40 for Brescia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Feralpisalo register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Brescia in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Feralpisalo lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Feralpisalo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 57% versus Brescia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 57% | Brescia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.33 xG and Brescia 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 1.097 / defence 1.548 | Brescia attack 0.887 / defence 0.990. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.189. Data: 35 Feralpisalo games / 73 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 28% | Brescia 43%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Brescia 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 70% | Brescia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 28% | Brescia 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Feralpisalo 1.33 / Brescia 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 1.097 / def 1.548 | Brescia attack 0.887 / def 0.990 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Brescia (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Brescia xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Brescia kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Brescia kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Brescia?
Feralpisalo 2 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Brescia part of?
Feralpisalo vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 29% chance of winning, Brescia a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Feralpisalo and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Brescia?
Record (1 meetings): Feralpisalo 0W | Draws 1 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Feralpisalo and Brescia in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Brescia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (1.10) and Brescia's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.89x) against Feralpisalo's defence (1.55x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
29%
3.40
28%
3.59
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.96
1.63
Brescia xG
3.40
29%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
20%
5.11
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
6%
17.37
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.2 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.63 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 35 outings, Feralpisalo have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 8W 8D 19L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 11W 14D 10L from 35 games, 1.34 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Brescia are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Feralpisalo.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feralpisalo have posted 0.76 PPG from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 5W 6D 6L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feralpisalo are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.09 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Brescia in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 8W 8D 19L in their last 35 games (0.91 PPG), while Brescia have gone 11W 14D 10L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Brescia away?
Brescia's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.76 PPG; Brescia away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Feralpisalo
2
Draws
0
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Brescia?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 0, Brescia have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Feralpisalo 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 59%, Brescia 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Feralpisalo) and 29% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 29% of games; Brescia in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Feralpisalo's games and 59% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feralpisalo vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 29% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Brescia tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Brescia in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feralpisalo and Brescia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 36, as Feralpisalo and Brescia drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.33 xG and Brescia 1.63 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 1.10 / defence 1.55 against Brescia attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 29% | Draw 28% | Brescia 43%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 57%, Brescia 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.