Spezia 1-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 36 as Spezia welcome Palermo to Stadio Alberto Picco. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Spezia at Stadio Alberto Picco this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Palermo's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Spezia have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Spezia register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Palermo in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Spezia, 0 for Palermo and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 48% versus Palermo 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 47% | Palermo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.27 xG and Palermo 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.821 / defence 1.010 | Palermo attack 1.190 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.180. Palermo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Spezia games / 73 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 31% | Draw 31% | Palermo 38%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Palermo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Spezia (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palermo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 60% | Palermo 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 31% | Draw 31% | Palermo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Spezia 1.27 / Palermo 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.821 / def 1.010 | Palermo attack 1.190 / def 1.283 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Palermo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Palermo xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Palermo kick off?
Spezia vs Palermo kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Palermo?
Spezia 1 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Spezia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Palermo part of?
Spezia vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 31% chance of winning, Palermo a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Spezia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Palermo?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 1 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Spezia and Palermo in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Palermo (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spezia's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Palermo's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
31%
3.21
31%
3.26
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.68
1.42
Palermo xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Spezia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Spezia and 1.42 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia come into this having played 73 games, going 12W 29D 32L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 1.38 PPG from 73 outings (25W 26D 22L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Spezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Spezia's home form reads 7W 16D 13L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 1.17 points per game from 36 outings (9W 15D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.47 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 12W 29D 32L in their last 73 games (0.89 PPG), while Palermo have gone 25W 26D 22L in their last 73 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.03 PPG; Palermo away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Spezia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Spezia
2
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Palermo have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 50%, Palermo 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Spezia) and 47% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Spezia have failed to score in 44% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Spezia's games and 67% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Spezia's recent games and 47% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Palermo tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Palermo in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Palermo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.27 xG and Palermo 1.42 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.82 / defence 1.01 against Palermo attack 1.19 / defence 1.28, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 31% | Draw 31% | Palermo 38%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 47%, Palermo 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Palermo's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spezia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.