Lecco 0-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lecco vs Sampdoria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Sampdoria travel to Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi to take on Lecco. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lecco stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lecco have posted 2W 1D 7L at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sampdoria have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sampdoria's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sampdoria are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lecco register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Sampdoria in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lecco, 1 for Sampdoria and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Sampdoria winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lecco trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Sampdoria trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lecco 54% and Sampdoria 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lecco 54% | Sampdoria 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lecco 0.99 xG and Sampdoria 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lecco attack 0.748 / defence 1.269 | Sampdoria attack 1.010 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.189. Lecco's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Lecco games / 35 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lecco 23% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 48%. Fair-value odds: Lecco 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Sampdoria 2.08. Sampdoria hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Lecco 60% | Sampdoria 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lecco vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lecco 23% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Lecco 0.99 / Sampdoria 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Lecco attack 0.748 / def 1.269 | Sampdoria attack 1.010 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Lecco xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Sampdoria xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lecco vs Sampdoria kick off?
Lecco vs Sampdoria kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What was the final score in Lecco vs Sampdoria?
Lecco 0 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Lecco vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi.
What competition is Lecco vs Sampdoria part of?
Lecco vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Lecco vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Lecco a 23% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 48% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lecco vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lecco and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Lecco vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Lecco 0W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Lecco and Sampdoria in?
Lecco (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lecco's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Lecco's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
23%
4.42
30%
3.35
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Lecco xG
Total xG
2.51
1.52
Sampdoria xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
37%
2.70
Win to Nil
5%
20.26
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lecco vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Lecco and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Lecco and 1.52 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Lecco vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lecco's recent record stands at 6W 8D 21L from 35 games, a 0.74 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 13W 9D 13L across 35 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sampdoria by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lecco heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lecco have managed 4W 2D 11L from 17 games — 0.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 7W 5D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lecco are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.37 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lecco
Current Season
Sampdoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lecco and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Lecco have gone 6W 8D 21L in their last 35 games (0.74 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 13W 9D 13L in their last 35 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lecco at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lecco at home: 0.82 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Lecco
0
Draws
2
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lecco and Sampdoria?
From 2 meetings on record, Lecco have won 0, Sampdoria have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lecco and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Lecco 0-1 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Lecco and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lecco 53%, Sampdoria 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lecco) and 53% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Lecco have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lecco home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lecco play Sampdoria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lecco's games and 71% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lecco vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lecco's recent games and 53% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lecco and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Lecco have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sampdoria edge out Lecco 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria beat Lecco 0-1 at Stadio Rigamonti Ceppi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lecco 0.99 xG and Sampdoria 1.52 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lecco fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lecco attack 0.75 / defence 1.27 against Sampdoria attack 1.01 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lecco 23% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 48%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lecco 54%, Sampdoria 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lecco's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sampdoria's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Lecco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sampdoria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.