Cosenza 0-2 Catanzaro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cosenza face Catanzaro.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Catanzaro make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Catanzaro's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Catanzaro's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Cosenza, 1.50 for Catanzaro — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Catanzaro and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Cosenza 0–2 Catanzaro — a Catanzaro win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cosenza — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Catanzaro — key trading statistics (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Catanzaro 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 41% | Catanzaro 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.50 xG and Catanzaro 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.054 / defence 1.057 | Catanzaro attack 0.806 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.238. Data: built from Cosenza's last 65 games and Catanzaro's last 27.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Catanzaro 25%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.18 | Draw 3.40 | Catanzaro 4.03. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 70% (last 10 home games) | Catanzaro 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Catanzaro | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Catanzaro 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Cosenza 1.50 / Catanzaro 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.054 / def 1.057 | Catanzaro attack 0.806 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Catanzaro xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Catanzaro FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Catanzaro kick off?
Cosenza vs Catanzaro kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Catanzaro?
Cosenza 0 - 2 Catanzaro.
Where is Cosenza vs Catanzaro being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Catanzaro part of?
Cosenza vs Catanzaro is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Catanzaro?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 46% chance of winning, Catanzaro a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Catanzaro?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cosenza and Catanzaro will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cosenza vs Catanzaro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cosenza's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Catanzaro's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Catanzaro's attack (0.81x) against Cosenza's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 65 games and Catanzaro's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
46%
2.18
29%
3.40
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.56
1.05
Catanzaro xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
6%
18.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.3 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Catanzaro Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Catanzaro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Catanzaro expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.05 for Catanzaro, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Catanzaro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza's recent record stands at 8W 9D 10L from 27 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Catanzaro, meanwhile, have gone 13W 6D 8L across 27 games — 1.67 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Catanzaro by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 4W 4D 5L from their last 13 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Catanzaro's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across their last 13 away games, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Catanzaro are on 1.63 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Catanzaro
Blended
Cosenza (Home) vs Catanzaro (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Blended
Catanzaro
Blended
❓ Cosenza vs Catanzaro Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Catanzaro in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 8W 9D 10L in their last 27 games (1.22 PPG), while Catanzaro have gone 13W 6D 8L in their last 27 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Catanzaro away?
Catanzaro's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.23 PPG; Catanzaro away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Cosenza and Catanzaro, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Catanzaro won Catanzaro 4-0 Cosenza on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Catanzaro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cosenza
1
Draws
3
Catanzaro
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Catanzaro H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Catanzaro?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 0, Catanzaro have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Catanzaro last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2025: Catanzaro 4-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Catanzaro?
Catanzaro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Catanzaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 69%, Catanzaro 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Cosenza and 54% for Catanzaro. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Catanzaro in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Catanzaro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Catanzaro Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Catanzaro matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Cosenza's games and 54% of Catanzaro's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cosenza and Catanzaro matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Cosenza's matches and 54% of Catanzaro's.
Do Cosenza and Catanzaro matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Cosenza's recent matches and 92% of Catanzaro's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Catanzaro cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cosenza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Catanzaro beat Cosenza 0-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.50 xG and Catanzaro 1.05 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Catanzaro outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Catanzaro attack 0.81 / defence 1.10, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Catanzaro 25%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Catanzaro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 41%, Catanzaro 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Catanzaro's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Catanzaro arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. Catanzaro (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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