Bari 1-1 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bari at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bari face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bari welcome Spezia to Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bari have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Bari have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bari are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Spezia — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Spezia's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Bari) versus 1.00 (Spezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Bari have won 0, Spezia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 15 Dec 2023, ended Bari 0–1 Spezia — a Spezia win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bari in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 47% versus Spezia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 35% | Spezia 48%). Note also that Spezia surrender HT leads in 50% of cases while Bari recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.64 xG and Spezia 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.961 / defence 0.909 | Spezia attack 0.814 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.238. Spezia's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Data: built from Bari's last 65 games and Spezia's last 27.
Result probabilities: Bari 53% | Draw 28% | Spezia 19%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.90 | Draw 3.57 | Spezia 5.17. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bari as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bari 50% (last 10 home games) | Spezia 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 53% | Draw 28% | Spezia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Bari 1.64 / Spezia 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.961 / def 0.909 | Spezia attack 0.814 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Bari (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Bari xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Spezia xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bari vs Spezia FAQs
What time does Bari vs Spezia kick off?
Bari vs Spezia kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Spezia?
Bari 1 - 1 Spezia.
Where is Bari vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Spezia part of?
Bari vs Spezia is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 53% chance of winning, Spezia a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bari and Spezia will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Bari vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.96) and Spezia's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bari's last 65 games and Spezia's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 2-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.57
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Bari xG
Total xG
2.55
0.92
Spezia xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
26.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bari vs Spezia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bari and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Bari and 0.92 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bari's recent record stands at 24W 25D 17L from 66 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 11W 24D 31L across 66 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-D-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bari by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bari have managed 13W 14D 6L from their last 33 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 5W 10D 18L across their last 33 away games, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bari are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.86 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Spezia
Blended
Bari (Home) vs Spezia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bari
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Bari vs Spezia Form FAQs
What form are Bari and Spezia in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 24W 25D 17L in their last 66 games (1.47 PPG), while Spezia have gone 11W 24D 31L in their last 66 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Spezia away?
Bari's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.61 PPG; Spezia away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Bari or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bari have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Spezia in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 11 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Bari's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Bari
4
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Bari vs Spezia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Spezia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Bari have won 1, Spezia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Spezia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 February 2026: Bari 0-0 Spezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bari see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 48%, Spezia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bari) and 54% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bari have failed to score in 30% of games; Spezia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bari vs Spezia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bari and Spezia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Bari's recent matches and 48% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bari and Spezia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bari's recent games and 54% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Spezia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Bari's recent matches and 73% of Spezia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Spezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 28, as Bari and Spezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.64 xG and Spezia 0.92 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 0.91 against Spezia attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 65/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 53% | Draw 28% | Spezia 19%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 35%, Spezia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Spezia's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bari arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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